Reliability Estimation for Networks of Reinforced Concrete Bridges
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 15, Issue 2
Abstract
Transportation networks are critical lifelines and their functionality after an earthquake is of primary importance for life safety and economic recovery of a community, yet they can be severely damaged during earthquakes. Reinforced concrete bridges are particularly vulnerable segments of these networks and have been severely damaged in past earthquakes. Past approaches for estimating traffic disruptions due to earthquakes have relied on computationally expensive simulations and have tended to overestimate postearthquake traffic volumes. This paper makes use of predictive fragility estimates to compute the conditional probability that a bridge in the network attains or exceeds a specified performance level for a given value of the ground motion intensity. The predictive fragilities incorporate the relevant sources of uncertainty inherent in the phenomenon. The focus of the paper is on network connectivity rather than traffic flow. The outcomes of the proposed approach can then be used by traffic models to accurately reflect postdisaster conditions. A block sampling-based simulation technique is used to estimate the network connectivity. This new approach provides a convenient, quick estimation of network reliability that complements computationally expensive traffic models.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 15 • Issue 2 • June 2009
Pages: 61 - 69
Copyright
© 2009 ASCE.
History
Received: Aug 30, 2006
Accepted: Jan 30, 2008
Published online: May 15, 2009
Published in print: Jun 2009
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