Empirical Comparison of Statistical Pavement Performance Models
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 14, Issue 2
Abstract
We conduct an empirical comparison of nine representative statistical pavement performance models, which have been estimated using serviceability data from the AASHO Road Test. The purpose of the study is to understand the effect of different statistical assumptions and estimation techniques on the models’ predictive capabilities. The study consists of using the models to predict the serviceability of a common subset of pavements from the test over a two-year forecast horizon. Comparison of the models is carried out using both aggregate- and disaggregate-level measures. The main insight that stems from our study is that models that account for heterogeneity lead to improved predictive capabilities. This is particularly important because the data were obtained from a controlled experiment. The study further shows that disaggregate measures are more useful in testing performance models because they are better indicators of the ability to capture the variability in data. Throughout the paper, we also discuss other model characteristics and issues that can be useful in the future development and evaluation of performance models.
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Acknowledgments
This work was partially supported by the Northwestern University Transportation Center through a Dissertation Year Fellowship award to C.-Y.C. and by the National Science Foundation through Grant No. 0547471 awarded to P.L.D.-C. The work was done while C.-Y.C. was a graduate student at Northwestern University.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 14 • Issue 2 • June 2008
Pages: 138 - 149
Copyright
© 2008 ASCE.
History
Received: Nov 29, 2006
Accepted: Sep 24, 2007
Published online: Jun 1, 2008
Published in print: Jun 2008
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