Recurrence Analysis of Hydrologic Droughts of Differing Severity
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 127, Issue 1
Abstract
Droughts are stochastic in nature, therefore, statistical assessment of droughts is an attractive approach for water resources planning and management. In this study, a methodology of frequency and risk analysis of hydrologic droughts, defined as an event during which the streamflow is continuously below a certain truncation level, is formulated. The theoretical derivation of the recurrence interval of hydrologic droughts with a certain severity or greater is obtained based on the concept of stochastic processes. For risk analysis, the distribution of the number of droughts occurring within a specific period of time and the distribution of the interarrival time of hydrologic droughts with a certain severity or greater are determined. To illustrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology, a recorded reservoir inflow is used as a case study. Satisfactory agreement is found between the observed data and the results of the proposed models.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 127 • Issue 1 • February 2001
Pages: 30 - 40
History
Received: May 4, 1999
Published online: Feb 1, 2001
Published in print: Feb 2001
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