Modeling Urban Spatial Evolution and Transport Demand

The principal sources of error in the trip patterns estimated by cross‐sectional‐type trip distribution models are their inability to capture the spatial evolution of urban areas and the socioeconomic biases in the spatial distributions of resident labor force and jobs. The paper describes a recursive‐type activity allocation‐transport demand model that address some of the model deficiencies. The paper describes the spatial evolution of the Toronto, Ontario, Canada, urban region and shows that the growth and change in commuting demands are strongly influenced by the socioeconomic biases in the distributions of labor force and employment. An activity allocation‐transport demand model is introduced; it estimates the employment in each zone in each of seven industry sectors, then converts these into jobs in each of eight occupation groups. The labor force living in each zone is calculated from the household structure estimated for each zone. Trip distribution patterns for each occupation group are estimated using a two‐level approach that combines the advantages of the Fratar‐type and doubly constrained gravity models.