Hurricane Damage Prediction Model for Residential Structures
Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 130, Issue 11
Abstract
The paper reports progress in the development of a practical probabilistic model for the estimation of expected annual damage induced by hurricane winds in residential structures. The estimation of the damage is accomplished in several steps. First, basic damage modes for components of specific building types are defined. Second, the damage modes are combined in possible damage states, whose probabilities of occurrence are calculated as functions of wind speeds from Monte Carlo simulations conducted on engineering numerical models of typical houses. The paper describes the conceptual framework for the proposed model, and illustrates its application for a specific building type with hypothetical probabilistic input. Actual probabilistic input must be based on laboratory studies, postdamage surveys, insurance claims data, engineering analyses and judgment, and Monte Carlo simulation methods. The proposed component-based model is flexible and transparent. It is therefore capable of being readily scrutinized. The model can be used in conjunction with historical loss data, to which it can readily be calibrated.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Baskaran, A., and Dutt, O. (1997). “Performance of roof fasteners under simulated loading conditions.” J. Wind. Eng. Ind. Aerodyn., 72(1–3), 389–400.
2.
Berke, P., Larsen, T., and Ruch, C. (1984). “A computer system for natural hazard risk assessment.” J. Comp, Environ. Urban Syst., 9(4), 259–269.
3.
Berke, P. (1985). “A computer simulation system for assessment of hurricane hazard impacts on land development.” edited by, J. M. Carroll Emergency Planning: Simulation series, 15(1), 149–154.
4.
Boswell, M.R., Deyle, R.E., Smith, R.A., and Baker, E.J. (1999). “A quantitative method for estimating public costs of hurricanes.” Environ. Manage. 23(3) 359–372.
5.
Cope, A., Gurley, K., Pinelli, J.-P., and Hamid, S. (2003). “A simulation model for wind damage predictions in Florida.” Proc., 11th Int. Conf. on Wind Engineering, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, Tex.
6.
Cunningham, T. P. (1993). “Roof sheathing fastening schedules for wind uplift.” APA Rep. No. T92-28, American Plywood Association, Tacoma, Wash.
7.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA. (1993). “Building performance: Hurricane Andrew in Florida.” Rep. No. FIA-22, Washington, D.C.
8.
Holmes, J. (1996). “Vulnerability curves for buildings in tropical cyclone regions.” Probabilistic Mechanics and Structural Reliability: Proceedings of the 7th ASCE EMD/STD Specialty conference, 78–81, Worcester, Mass. August 7–9.
9.
Huang, Z., Rosowsky, D. V., and Sparks, P. R. (2001). “Long-term hurricane risk assessment and expected damage to residential structures.” Reliability Eng. Sys. Safety, 74, 239–249.
10.
Khanduri, A. C., and Morrow, G. C. (2003). “Vulnerability of buildings to windstorms and insurance loss estimation.” J. Wind. Eng. Ind. Aerodyn., 91, 455–467.
11.
Landsea, C. W., Pielke, Jr., R. A., Mestas-Nunez, A. M., and Knaff, J. A. (1999). “Atlantic basin hurricanes: Indices of climatic changes,” Climatic Change, 42, 89–129.
12.
Lavelle, F., Vickery, P.J., Schauer, B., Twisdale, L.A., and Laatsch, E. (2003). “The HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model.” Proc., 11th Int. Conf. on Wind Engineering, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, Tex.
13.
Mitsuta, Y., Fujii, T., and Nagashima, I. (1996). “A predicting method of typhoon wind damages.” Probabilistic Mechanics and Structural Reliability: Proceedings of the 7th ASCE EMD/STD Joint Specialty Conference, 970–973, Worcester, Mass. August 7–9.
14.
Pielke, Jr., R. A., and Landsea, C. W. (1998). “Normalized Atlantic hurricane damage, 1925–1995.” Weather Forecasting, 13, 621–631.
15.
Pinelli, J.-P., et al. (2003). “Classification of structural models for wind damage predictions in Florida.” Proc., 11th Int. Conf. on Wind Engineering, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, Tex.
16.
Powell, M., et al. (2003).” State of Florida hurricane loss projection model: Atmospheric science component,” Proc., 11th Int. Conf. on Wind Engineering, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, Tex.
17.
Sill, B. L., and Kozlowski, R. T. (1997). “Analysis of storm damage factors for low-rise structures.” J. Perform. Constr. Facil., 11(4), 168–177.
18.
Topics—Annual review: Natural catastrophes 2001. (2002). Munich Re Group, Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft, D-80791, Munich, Germany, 9–9.
19.
Zhang, L. (2003). ”Public hurricane loss projection model: Exposure and vulnerability components.” M.S. thesis, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, Fla.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
Copyright © ASCE.
History
Published online: Oct 15, 2004
Published in print: Nov 2004
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.