TECHNICAL PAPERS
Dec 1, 1990

Risk Transition and Global Warming

Publication: Journal of Energy Engineering
Volume 116, Issue 3

Abstract

Economic development results in the gradual substitution of the traditional risks largely related to rural poverty with the modern risks characterizing industrialization and agricultural modernization. In the world today, modern technologies and their risks are being introduced during earlier phases of development than in the past. Consequently, undue risks of both types often exist side by side. To reflect the actual impact of new technologies in developing countries, therefore, risk assessors should consider interactions that develop because of this risk overlap. In addition, better techniques for net risk assessment need to be found because significant risk lowering and risk raising occur in developing countries. Although each country will develop in its own fashion, the risk transition framework can be useful for comparison and analysis. A brief illustration of its use is given for evaluating alternative policies in developing countries for response to global warming.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

References

1.
Behm, H., and Vallin, J. (1980). “Mortality differentials among human groups.” Biological and social aspects of mortality and the length of life, S. H. Preston, ed., Ordina Editions, Brussels, Belgium, 11–37.
2.
Brenner, M. H. (1980). “Industrialization and economic growth: Estimates of their effects on the health of populations.” Assessing the contributions of the social sciences to health, M. H. Brenner et al., eds., Westview Press, Boulder, Colo., 65–115.
3.
Brenner, M. H. (1984). Estimating the effects of economic change on national health and social well‐being. Subcommitte on Economic Goals and Intergovernmental Policy of the Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States, Washington, D.C., Jun., 1–111.
4.
Caldwell, J. C. (1986). “Routes to low mortality in poor countries.” Population and Devel. Rev., 12(2), 171–220.
5.
Collins, J. J., Lundy, R. T., and Grahn, D. (1983). “A demographic model for performing site‐specific health risk projections.” Health Physics, 45(1), 9–20.
6.
Edgerton, S. A., et al. (1990). “Priorities for the study of environmental risk in developing countries.” Risk Analysis, 10(2), 273–283.
7.
Fox, A. J., et al. (1986). Socio‐economic differential mortality in industrialized societies. U.N. Population Div./World Health Organization/Committee for Int. Cooperation in Nat. Res. in Demography/Federal Inst. for Population Res., New York, N.Y.
8.
Greenberg, M. R. (1986). “Disease competition as a factor in ecological studies of mortality: The case of urban centers.” Social Sci. Medicine, 23(10), 929–934.
9.
Harriss, R. C., Hohenemser, C., and Kates, R. W. (1985). “Human and nonhuman mortality.” Perilous progress, R. W. Kates, et al., eds., Westview Press, Boulder, Colo., 129–156.
10.
Hill, K. (1985). “The pace of mortality decline since 1950.” Quantitative studies of mortality decline in the developing world, (Staff Working Paper No. 683), World Bank, Washington, D.C., 53–95.
11.
Kasperson, J. X., and Kasperson, R. E. (1987). “Priorities in profile: Managing risks in developing countries.” Risk Abstracts, 4(3), 113–118.
12.
Kasperson, R. E., and Morrison, M. (1982), “A proposal for international risk management research.” Risk in the technological society, C. Hohenemser, et al., eds., Westview Press, Boulder, Colo., 303–331.
13.
Kasperson, R. E., and Pijawka, K. D. (1985). “Societal responses to hazards and major hazard events: Comparing natural and technological hazards.” Public Admin. Rev., 45(SI), 7–18.
14.
Keeney, R. L., and von Winterfeldt, D. (1986). “Why indirect health risks of regulations should be examined.” Interfaces, 16(6), 13–27.
15.
Lave, J., and Lave, L. B. (1985). “Adapting risk management methods to the developing countries.” Int. Conf. on Risk in Developing Countries, U.S. National Science Foundation and Administrative Staff College, Hyderabad, India.
16.
Moghissi, A. A. (1986). “Poverty is the ultimate pollution.” Envir. Int., 12(6), 595.
17.
Preston, S. H. (1975). “The changing relation between mortality and level of economic development.” Population Studies, 29(2), 231–248.
18.
Preston, S. H. (1976). Mortality patterns in national populations: With special reference to recorded causes of death. Academic Press, New York, N.Y.
19.
Preston, S. H. (1980). “Causes and consequences of mortality declines in less developed countries during the twentieth century.” Population and economic change in developing countries, R. A. Easterlin, ed., Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago, Ill., 289–360.
20.
Preston, S. H. (1985). “Mortality and development revisited.” Quantitative studies of mortality decline in the developing world (Staff Working Paper No. 683), World Bank, Washington, D.C., 97–122.
21.
Rodgers, G. B. (1979). “Income and inequality as determinants of mortality: An international cross‐section analysis.” Population Studies, 33(2), 343–351.
22.
Sagan, L. A., and Afifi, A. A. (1978). “Health and economic development. I: Infant Mortality; II: Longevity.” RM‐78‐41, Int. Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
23.
Smith, K. R. (1988). “The risk transition.” Working Paper #88‐10, Envir. and Policy Inst., East‐West Ctr., Honolulu, Hawaii.
24.
Smith, K. R. (1989). “Developing countries and climate change: Implications for risk management.” Responding to global climate change, D. Streets and T. Siddiqi, eds., Argonne Nat. Lab., Argonne, Ill., 2‐37–2‐41.
25.
Sullivan, R. E., and Weng, P. (1987). “Comparison of risk estimates using life‐table methods.” Health Physics, 53(2), 123–134.
26.
Whipple, C. (1985). “Redistributing risk.” Regulation, 9(3), 37–44.
27.
White, G. F. (1980). “Environment.” Sci., 209, 183–190.
28.
Whittemore, A. S. (1983). “Facts and values in risk analysis for environmental toxicants.” Risk Analysis, 3(1), 23–33.
29.
Whyte, A. V., and Burton, I. (eds.). (1980). Environmental risk assessment (SCOPE #15). John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, U.K.
30.
Wildavsky, A. (1988). Searching for safety. Transaction Books, New Brunswick, N.J.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Journal of Energy Engineering
Journal of Energy Engineering
Volume 116Issue 3December 1990
Pages: 178 - 188

History

Published online: Dec 1, 1990
Published in print: Dec 1990

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Authors

Affiliations

Kirk R. Smith
Prog. Coordinator, East‐West Envir. and Policy Inst., East‐West Center, Honolulu, HI 96848

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

Cited by

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share