Enhancing Risk Assessment in Natural Gas Pipelines Using a Fuzzy Aggregation Approach Supported by Expert Elicitation
Publication: Practice Periodical on Structural Design and Construction
Volume 29, Issue 4
Abstract
Although the natural gas pipeline network is the most efficient and secure transportation mode for natural gas, it remains susceptible to external and internal risk factors. It is vital to address the associated risk factors such as corrosion, third-party interference, natural disasters, and equipment faults, which may lead to pipeline leakage or failure. The conventional quantitative risk assessment techniques require massive historical failure data that are sometimes unavailable or vague. Experts or researchers in the same field can always provide insights into the latest failure assessment picture. In this paper, fuzzy set theory is employed by obtaining expert elicitation through linguistic variables to obtain the failure probability of the top event (pipeline failure). By applying a combination of T- and S-Norms, the fuzzy aggregation approach can enable the most conservative risk failure assessment. The findings from this study showed that internal factors, including material faults and operational errors, significantly impact the pipeline failure integrity. Future directions should include sensitivity analyses to address the uncertainty in data to ensure the reliability of assessment results.
Practical Applications
Natural gas pipelines are efficient and reliable transportation modes. The integrity of these valuable assets is threatened by various risks such as corrosion, environmental factors, human errors, and mechanical faults. For newly developed or less monitored pipeline networks, historical data are either unavailable or faulty. To overcome this shortcoming, experts from pipeline networks can provide invaluable insight by providing their expert opinion. This study uses the expert’s elicitation by applying a fuzzy aggregation approach to predict the pipeline failure probability. The finding of this study confirmed that material faults and operational errors are the most critical risk factors leading to pipeline failure. The results of this study can be used to develop effective mitigation strategies for pipeline networks to minimize future failures.
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Data Availability Statement
The data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This work was partially supported the National Science Foundation under EPSCoR RII Track-2 Program award no. OIA-2119691 and CMMI-1750316 and US Department of Transportation PHMSA under Grant No. 693JK3250009CAAP. The findings and opinions presented in this manuscript are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the perspective of the sponsors.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Practice Periodical on Structural Design and Construction
Volume 29 • Issue 4 • November 2024
Copyright
© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 16, 2024
Accepted: Apr 18, 2024
Published online: Jul 10, 2024
Published in print: Nov 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Dec 10, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Analysis (by type)
- Artificial intelligence (AI)
- Artificial intelligence and machine learning
- Computer programming
- Computing in civil engineering
- Disaster risk management
- Energy engineering
- Energy infrastructure
- Energy sources (by type)
- Engineering fundamentals
- Failure analysis
- Fuels
- Fuzzy logic
- Gas pipelines
- Infrastructure
- Lifeline systems
- Natural gas
- Non-renewable energy
- Petroleum
- Pipe failures
- Pipeline management
- Pipeline systems
- Pipelines
- Risk management
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