Meteorological Analysis and Damage Survey Study of the Impact of Hurricane Elsa in Barbados

Hurricane Elsa was the first hurricane to impact the island of Barbados in more than 60 years. Global warming is expected to increase the number of intense hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, which present a greater risk of future devastating hurricane impacts on the island. This study investigates the meteorological conditions and rapid intensification of Elsa between June 27 and July 3, 2021, by using meteorological data sets and results from the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The study also uses damage assessment data to analyze wind damage caused to residential homes as Elsa passed over Barbados on July 2. Unusually warm sea surface temperatures for June/early July, and a strong North Atlantic Subtropical High that was positioned anomalously close to the Caribbean islands, contributed to Elsa’s rapid intensification and its track across the Atlantic, respectively. It was also found that most reported damages on the island involved the complete or partial removal of roofs and were concentrated in and around the capital city Bridgetown, which is most likely due to the high concentration of poorly constructed houses in this area. Therefore, there is a need to improve the building codes of houses to ensure that they withstand strong hurricane winds. It was recommended that the implementation of a mandatory building code in addition to the provision of subsidies for low-income persons to improve their homes could aid with this issue. Furthermore, the paper highlights deficiencies in weather models in predicting the genesis and rapid intensification of Elsa, which highlights a need for improvements.

After more than 60 years without hurricanes in Barbados, Hurricane Elsa passed over Barbados on July 2, 2021, causing damage to the built environment on the island. Elsa was rated as a Category 1 hurricane. Unusually warm sea surface temperatures for June/early July and a strong high-pressure system that was positioned anomalously close to the Caribbean islands were responsible for Elsa’s formation and trajectory over Barbados. Elsa exhibited rapid intensification—an increase in 1-min sustained wind speeds of more than $15\mathrm{m}{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$ in 24 h—but this intensification was not properly forecasted by weather prediction models. Most reported damages on the island involved the complete or partial removal of roofs. The highest concentration of damages was in and around Bridgetown. Barbados has a building code, but adherence to it is not mandatory. The enforcement of a mandatory building code would increase resilience of Barbados to hurricanes, but it would also require government subsidies for persons who cannot afford to build their houses up to code. It is imperative that the government and population take early action to prepare themselves before any devastating hurricane disasters in the future.