Modeling the Failures and Decommissioning of Water Mains and Water Service Lines with Time-Dependent Factors
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 150, Issue 4
Abstract
Modeling the pipe failure phenomenon is essential for any water utility. The linear extension of the Yule process (LEYP), proposed in 2009, was intended to be a synthesis of the pipe failure models available at the time. Since then, two major improvements have been proposed. First, in 2012 and 2014, several papers introduced time-dependent factors into the LEYP model. Second, in 2016, the LEYP with Selective Survival (LEYP2s) was proposed to deal with the selective survival bias. The objectives of this paper were (1) from a theoretical point of view, to show how temporal covariates also can be introduced into the LEYP2s model; and (2) from a practical point of view, to prove the feasibility and interest of a LEYP2s model with time-dependent variables, using a case study. The mathematical consequences of taking into account temporal factors within the LEYP2s model are presented, together with the solutions found that allow the calculation of the model likelihood and thus the estimation of the model parameters. These solutions were applied to the black polyethylene service line network of the city of Bordeaux, France. Three time-dependent covariates were considered: air temperature, pressure regime, and type of disinfectant. This case study proved the feasibility of a LEYP2s model with temporal variables. The results showed that the time-dependent factors considered did not improve the ranking of the service lines, but did improve the annual prediction of the network failure rate.
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Data Availability Statement
Temperature data of the Bordeaux-Mérignac weather station were provided by a third party. Direct request for these materials may be made to the provider as indicated in the Acknowledgments. Some data and code generated or used during the study are proprietary or confidential in nature and may only be provided with restrictions, including data of the Bordeaux water network (may only be provided anonymized) and code of the LEYP2s and LEYP2sZt likelihood functions.
Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge Bordeaux Métropole for its financial support for the research of this work, and for providing the data of its water network. The authors also thank the data providers in the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECAD) project (https://www.ecad.eu), and the developers of the R language.
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© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 13, 2023
Accepted: Nov 26, 2023
Published online: Feb 15, 2024
Published in print: Apr 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Jul 15, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Analysis (by type)
- Case studies
- Engineering fundamentals
- Failure analysis
- Feasibility studies
- Infrastructure
- Mathematical models
- Measurement (by type)
- Methodology (by type)
- Models (by type)
- Pipe failures
- Pipeline management
- Pipeline systems
- Pipelines
- Research methods (by type)
- Time dependence
- Water and water resources
- Water management
- Water pipelines
- Water supply
- Water supply systems
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