Analysis and Modeling of Pressure Pipe Failures in Auckland, New Zealand
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 150, Issue 4
Abstract
Pressure pipe failure is a common problem for water utilities worldwide and can result in high costs and disruption of customers. This study analyzed the failure rates of iron, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), asbestos cement (AC), and polyethylene (PE) mains in the water network of the Auckland, New Zealand, over a six-year period. Correlations between failure rates and a range of contributing factors were studied, and multilinear regression and machine learning (random forest, gradient boosted decision tree) models were then used to predict pipe failure rates and prioritize pipes for replacement. The study found the most important factors influencing failure rates to be diameter, age, and modeled pressure for all materials. The failure rates of all materials increased within a relatively narrow band up to a 30 year age. For pressure, failure rates were observed to increase linearly with pressure for iron and AC, while plastics (PVC and PE) displayed nonlinear trends with pressure having a greater relative impact at higher values. The pressure trends were observed for each material when considering all pipes, but also when grouping pipes by diameter or age. A focused investigation using scatterer interferometry data captured by the SENTINEL-1 satellite did not find any correlation between pipe failures and any identified ground movements from adjacent reflective surfaces. The gradient boosted decision tree model was able to include a high fraction of failing pipes in a prioritized pipe replacement list limited to 1% of the system length.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are proprietary or confidential in nature and may only be provided with restrictions. Specifically, detailed data specific to the characteristics of the network and owned by Watercare are confidential for security reasons.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 150 • Issue 4 • April 2024
Copyright
© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 4, 2023
Accepted: Nov 17, 2023
Published online: Feb 9, 2024
Published in print: Apr 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Jul 9, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Aging (material)
- Analysis (by type)
- Continuum mechanics
- Deterioration
- Dynamic pressure
- Dynamics (solid mechanics)
- Engineering fundamentals
- Engineering mechanics
- Failure analysis
- Infrastructure
- Material failures
- Materials characterization
- Materials engineering
- Pipe failures
- Pipe materials
- Pipeline management
- Pipeline systems
- Pipes
- Pressure (type)
- Pressure pipes
- Solid mechanics
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