Urban Metro Systems: Configurational Analysis of Antecedent Conditions Influencing High Metro Ridership
Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 150, Issue 4
Abstract
The development of urban rail transit systems is progressing rapidly, and an increasing number of cities worldwide are either in the process or planning to construct urban rail transit systems. However, questions arise as to whether all cities truly require such systems and how to prevent these transit systems from becoming decorative rather than essential to urban development. This paper collates various antecedent conditions that may influence ridership in rail transit across 31 cities in China with operating rail transit. To this end, it uses two main methods, including necessary condition analysis and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis methodologies. In this way, it explores the interactive effects of multiple factors such as the level of urban development, trends in urban development, ground-level road network congestion, urban spatial patterns (centrality), coverage of rail transit, and government focus on rail transit. The results show that no single antecedent condition can be a necessary condition for high ridership in rail transit. Rather, the effective combination of various antecedent conditions has elevated postimplementation ridership in a different means, same end manner. Moreover, the government's focus on rail transit development or its effective planning can increase postimplementation ridership in cities lacking some objective resource conditions. Furthermore, ridership in most cities remains stable after the initiation of rail transit. The findings imply that the development of urban rail transit systems requires a comprehensive urban development plan, which covers urban growth trends, congestion levels, and spatial patterns.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or codes that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This paper is supported by the Zhejiang Provincial Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning Project (Project No. 23NDJC050Z).
References
Ahn, K., H. Jang, and Y. Song. 2020. “Economic impacts of being close to subway networks: A case study of Korean metropolitan areas.” Res. Transp. Econ. 83: 100900. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2020.100900.
AlQuhtani, S., and A. Anjomani. 2021. “Do rail transit stations affect the population density changes around them? The case of Dallas-Fort Worth Metropolitan Area.” Sustainability 13 (6): 3355. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13063355.
Andersen, P., and N. C. Petersen. 1993. “A procedure for ranking efficient units in data envelopment analysis.” Manage. Sci. 39 (10): 1261–1264. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.39.10.1261.
Bao, X. 2018. “Urban rail transit present situation and future development trends in China: Overall analysis based on national policies and strategic plans in 2016–2020.” Urban Rail. Transit. 4 (1): 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40864-018-0078-4.
Beaudoin, J., Y. H. Farzin, and C.-Y. C. Lin Lawell. 2015. “Public transit investment and sustainable transportation: A review of studies of transit’s impact on traffic congestion and air quality.” Res. Transp. Econ. 52: 15–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2015.10.004.
Bhatta, S. D., and M. P. Drennan. 2003. “The economic benefits of public investment in transportation.” J. Plann. Educ. Res. 22: 288–296. https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X02250317.
Cervero, R., and J. Landis. 1991. Suburbanization of jobs and the journey to work. Rep. No. 83. Berkeley, CA: Univ. of California Transportation Center Berkeley.
Chen, Y., and A. Whalley. 2012. “Green infrastructure: The effects of urban rail transit on air quality.” Am. Econ. J. Econ. Policy 4 (1): 58–97. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.4.1.58.
Chen, Z., Q. He, X. Su, Y. Yuan, and S. Chen. 2021. “The opening conditions of the metro and its early characteristics: A historical perspective.” Tunnelling Underground Space Technol. 108: 103732. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2020.103732.
Cheng, C., and D. J. Liang. 2016. “Research on the driving pattern of China’s enterprise cross-border M&AS: A qualitative comparative analysis.” Nankai Bus. Rev. 19 (6): 113–121.
Cirianni, F. M. M., A. Comi, and A. Quattrone. 2023. “Mobility control centre and artificial intelligence for sustainable urban districts.” Information 14 (10): 581. https://doi.org/10.3390/info14100581.
Crilly, D., M. Zollo, and M. T. Hansen. 2012. “Faking it or muddling through? Understanding decoupling in response to stakeholder pressures.” Acad. Manage. J. 55 (6): 1429–1448. https://doi.org/10.5465/amj.2010.0697.
Derrible, S., and C. Kennedy. 2009. “Network analysis of world subway systems using updated graph theory.” Transp. Res. Rec. 2112 (1): 17–25. https://doi.org/10.3141/2112-03.
Desmet, K., and E. Rossi-Hansberg. 2014. “Spatial development.” Am. Econ. Rev. 104 (4): 1211–1243. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.4.1211.
Diab, E., D. Kasraian, E. J. Miller, and A. Shalaby. 2020. “The rise and fall of transit ridership across Canada: Understanding the determinants.” Transp. Policy 96: 101–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.07.002.
Du, Y., and L. Jia. 2017. “Configuration perspective and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA): A new way of management research.” Manage. World 6: 155–167.
Du, Y., Q. Liu, K. Chen, R. Xiao, and S. Li. 2022. “Ecosystem of doing business, total factor productivity and multiple patterns of high-quality development of Chinese cities: A configuration analysis based on complex systems view.” Manage. World 38: 127–145.
Du, Y., Q. Liu, and J. Cheng. 2020. “What kind of ecosystem for doing business will contribute to city-level high entrepreneurial activity? A research based on institutional configurations.” J. Manage. World 36: 141–155.
Dul, J. 2016. “Necessary condition analysis (NCA) logic and methodology of ‘necessary but not sufficient’ causality.” Organ. Res. Methods 19 (1): 10–52. https://doi.org/10.1177/1094428115584005.
Duranton, G., and M. A. Turner. 2012. “Urban growth and transportation.” Rev. Econ. Stud. 79 (4): 1407–1440. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rds010.
Fiss, P. C. 2011. “Building better causal theories: A fuzzy set approach to typologies in organization research.” Acad. Manage. J. 54 (2): 393–420. https://doi.org/ 10.5465/AMJ.2011.60263120.
Glaeser, E. L., and M. E. Kahn. 2004. “Sprawl and urban growth.” In Vol. 4 of Handbook of regional and urban economics. 1st ed., edited by J. V. Henderson and J. F. Thisse, Chapter 56, 2481–2527. Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier.
Gutiérrez, J., O. D. Cardozo, and J. C. García-Palomares. 2011. “Transit ridership forecasting at station level: An approach based on distance-decay weighted regression.” J. Transp. Geogr. 19 (6): 1081–1092. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2011.05.004.
Han, B., Z. Xi, Y. Sun, F. Lu, C. Y. Niu, C. X. Wang, K. L. Xu, and Y.F Yao. 2023a. “Statistical analysis of urban rail transit operation in the world in 2022: A review.” Urban Rapid Rail. Transit. 36: 5–11.
Han, B., et al. 2023b. “Statistical analysis of urban rail transit operation in the world in 2020: A review.” Urban Rapid Rail. Transit. 34 (1): 5–11.
He, Y., Y. Zhao, and K. L. Tsui. 2019. “An analysis of factors influencing metro station ridership: Insights from Taipei Metro.” arXiv preprint arXiv:1904.01280. Urban Rapid Rail Transit 36 (1): 1–8. https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.01280.
Irshad, M., and J. R. Dickson. 1996. “Improved subway construction for the 21st century.” Transp. Res. Rec. 1541 (1): 163–170. https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198196154100121.
Jian-li, Z., S. Jing-shi, S. Qiu-xia, R. Ling, and L. Cai-hong. 2020. “Short-time inflow and outflow prediction of metro stations based on hybrid deep learning.” J. Transp. Syst. Eng. Inf. Technol. 20 (5): 128.
Kuby, M., A. Barranda, and C. Upchurch. 2004. “Factors influencing light-rail station boardings in the United States.” Trans. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 38 (3): 223–247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2003.10.006.
Lee, C. H., and D. S. Yun. 2014. “Analysis of factors affecting rail transit ridership at urban rail stations.” J. Korean Soc. Transp. 32 (2): 139–151. https://doi.org/ 10.7470/jkst.2014.32.2.139-247.
Li, B. 2017. “Urban rail transit normal and abnormal short-term passenger flow forecasting method.” J. Transp. Syst. Eng. Inf. Technol.17 (1): 127.
Liang, W., and J. Yang. 2008. “Encourage vs. discourage—Discussion on urban rail development in Beijing’s New City.” Urban Dev. Stud. S1: 1–3.
Liu, Q., and L. Jia. 2008. “Study on factors influencing railway passenger flow under complex system.” Railw. Transp. Econ. 11: 14–19.
Liu, X., J. Macedo, T. Zhou, L. Shen, Y. Liao, and Y. Zhou. 2018. “Evaluation of the utility efficiency of subway stations based on spatial information from public social media.” Habitat Int. 79: 10–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2018.07.006.
Lu, K., B. Han, F. Lu, and Z. Wang. 2016. “Urban rail transit in China: Progress report and analysis (2008–2015).” Urban Rail. Transit. 2 (3–4): 93–105. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40864-016-0048-7.
Ma, M., D. Hu, S. I.-J. Chien, J. Liu, X. Yang, and Z. Ma. 2022. “Evolution assessment of urban rail transit networks: A case study of Xi’an, China.” Phys. A 603: 127670. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2022.127670.
Ma, X. 2008. “Impact of land utilization adjustment on passenger traffic volume of rail transit.” Urban Rapid Rail. Transit. 3: 1–5.
Merlin, L. A., M. Singer, and J. Levine. 2021. “Influences on transit ridership and transit accessibility in US urban areas.” Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 150: 63–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2021.04.014.
Ouyang, Z., and X. Ma. 2004. “Influential factors in passenger flow dimension in Guangzhou metro.” Urban Mass. Transit. 7 (3): 63–65.
Patella, S. M., S. Sportiello, M. Petrelli, and S. Carrese. 2019. “Workplace relocation from suburb to city center: A case study of Rome, Italy.” Case Stud. Transp. Policy 7 (2): 357–362. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.cstp.2019.04.009.
Raymundo, H., and J. G. M. Reis. 2023. “How to measure performance evaluation in urban passenger transportation by disutilities: Model and application in the ten largest US cities.” J. Urban Plann. Dev. 149 (2): 04023007. https://doi.org/ 10.1061/JUPDDM.UPENG-408347).
Ren, H. 2013. “On the appraisal index for urban rail transit operational performance.” Urban Mass. Transit. Res. 16 (12): 6–9.
Raymundo, H., and J. G. M. d. Reis. 2018. “Measures for passenger-transport performance evaluation in urban areas.” J. Urban Plan. Dev. 144 (3): 04018023. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000461.
Schneider, C. Q., and C. Wagemann. 2012. Set-theoretic methods for the social sciences: A guide to qualitative comparative analysis: Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Shaaban, K., and A. Siam. 2023. “Factors affecting public transportation ridership in a high-income developing country.” Open Transp. J. 17: e187444782212303. https://doi.org/10.2174/18744478.
Taghvaee, V., Y. Sharifpour, F. Akbari, A. A. Arani, and M. Tatar. 2023. Integrated sustainability of social, environment and economy: Defining the hypotheses and theories interconnecting the pillars of sustainable development. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-44-313776-1.00156-2
Taghvaee, V. M., M. Nodehi, R. M. Saber, and M. Mohebi. 2022. “Sustainable development goals and transportation modes: Analyzing sustainability pillars of environment, health, and economy.” World Dev. Sustainability 1: 100018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wds.2022.100018.
Taylor, B. D., and C. N. Y. Fink. 2013. “Explaining transit ridership: What has the evidence shown?” Transp. Lett. 5 (1): 15–26. https://doi.org/10.1179/1942786712Z.0000000003.
Wang, Q., X. Liu, and Y. Li. 2021. “Spatial structure, city size and innovation performance of Chinese cities.” China Ind. Econ. 5: 114–132.
Wang, Y., and W. Yuan. 2022. “Metro opening, knowledge spillovers and urban innovation: Evidence from 289 prefecture-level cities in China.” Econ. Sci. 2: 82–95.
Yang, Y., Y. Bian, and X. Zhou. 2015. “Study on indication of conditions for developing urban rail transit.” Urban Rapid Rail. Transit. 28 (4): 1–5.
Zhang, M., W. Chen, and H. Lan. 2019. “Why do Chinese enterprises completely acquire foreign high-tech enterprises—A fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) based on 94 cases.” China Ind. Econ. 4: 117–135.
Zhang, M., and Y. Du. 2019. “Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) in management and organization research: Position, tactics, and directions.” Chin. J. Manage. 16: 1312–1323.
Zhao, X., L. Xiao, and Z. Wang. 2018. “The impact analysis of transit subsidies on urban individual fare.” Syst. Eng. Theory Pract. 38 (8): 2088–2097.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 150 • Issue 4 • December 2024
Copyright
© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 28, 2023
Accepted: May 7, 2024
Published online: Jul 17, 2024
Published in print: Dec 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Dec 17, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.