Case Studies
Jul 17, 2024

Priority Order of Rural Infrastructure Investment Options: System Dynamics Analysis

Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 150, Issue 4

Abstract

As a crucial measure to promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas in developing countries (such as China), how to provide and manage rural infrastructure investment is a major challenge. In line with the implementation of a coordinated urban–rural development strategy, inclusive growth provides direction for rural infrastructure investment. Taking Chongqing, China, as an example, informed by the goals of inclusive growth, this study develops a system dynamics model to investigate the interaction between interdependent infrastructure systems and socioeconomic systems and to explore priorities for rural infrastructure investment. The results indicate the following: (1) more rural infrastructure investment is still needed in Chongqing by 2030; and (2) based on the importance of all types of rural infrastructures for the impact of inclusive growth goals, the ratio of budget shares invested in each dimension is, in descending order, environment infrastructure, energy infrastructure, communication infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, education infrastructure, and medical infrastructure. The approach and results of this study allow governments to assess the contribution of infrastructure provision to the goals of inclusive growth and to make better-informed infrastructure investment options.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

Data Availability Statement

All data, models, and codes generated or used during the study appear in the published paper.

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 72271042 and 72171036), the National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 23VRC040), the Project of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research, Ministry of Education (Grant No. 22JHQ093), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China (Grant No. DUT23RW303).

References

Agarwal, S., S. Rahman, and A. Errington. 2009. “Measuring the determinants of relative economic performance of rural areas.” J. Rural Stud. 25 (3): 309–321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2009.02.003.
Ali, I., and X. Yao. 2004. Inclusive growth for sustainable poverty reduction in developing Asia: The enabling role of infrastructure development. Mandaluyong, Philippines: Asian Development Bank.
Antle, J. M. 1983. “Infrastructure and aggregate agricultural productivity: International evidence.” Econ. Dev. Cult. Change 31 (3): 609–619. https://doi.org/10.1086/451344.
Berg, A., J. D. Ostry, and J. Zettelmeyer. 2012. “What makes growth sustained?” J. Dev. Econ. 98 (2): 149–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.08.002.
Biswas, A. 2016. “Insight on the evolution and distinction of inclusive growth.” Dev. Pract. 26 (4): 503–516. https://doi.org/10.1080/09614524.2016.1167169.
Biswas, A. 2019. “A framework to analyse inclusiveness of urban policy.” Cities 87: 174–184. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2018.09.022.
Calderon, C. A., and L. Servén. 2004. “The effects of infrastructure development on growth and income distribution.” Ann. Econ. Fin. 15 (2). https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-3400.
Chaurey, R., and D. T. Le. 2022. “Infrastructure maintenance and rural economic activity: Evidence from India.” J. Public Econ. 214: 104725. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104725.
Cheng, X., C.-M. Shuai, J. Wang, W.-J. Li, J. Shuai, and Y. Liu. 2018. “Building a sustainable development model for China’s poverty-stricken reservoir regions based on system dynamics.” J. Cleaner Prod. 176: 535–554. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.12.068.
Cockburn, J., Y. Dissou, J.-Y. Duclos, and L. Tiberti., eds. 2013. Infrastructure and economic growth in Asia. Cham, Switzerland: Springer.
Corrado, G., and L. Corrado. 2017. “Inclusive finance for inclusive growth and development.” Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustainability 24: 19–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2017.01.013.
Diaz, R., J. G. Behr, and M. W. Ng. 2016. “Quantifying the economic and demographic impact of transportation infrastructure investments: A simulation study.” Simulation 92 (4): 377–393. https://doi.org/10.1177/0037549716632343.
Dinlersoz, E. M., and Z. Fu. 2022. “Infrastructure investment and growth in China: A quantitative assessment.” J. Dev. Econ. 158: 102916. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102916.
Dissou, Y., and S. Didic. 2013. “Infrastructure and Growth.” In Economic studies in inequality, social exclusion, and well-being, edited by John Cockburn, Yazid Dissou, Jean-Yves Duclos, and Luca Tiberti, 5–45. Berlin, Germany: Springer.
Estache, A., G. Garsous, and R. S. da Motta. 2016. “Shared mandates, moral hazard, and political (mis)alignment in a decentralized economy.” World Dev. 83: 98–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.02.006.
Forrester Jay, W. 1961. Industrial dynamics. New York, London: Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Wiley.
Fransen, K., K. Boussauw, G. Deruyter, and P. De Maeyer. 2019. “The relationship between transport disadvantage and employability: Predicting long-term unemployment based on job seekers’ access to suitable job openings in Flanders, Belgium.” Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 125: 268–279. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.01.023.
Ge, T., W. Qiu, J. Y. Li, and X. L. Hao. 2020. “The impact of environmental regulation efficiency loss on inclusive growth: Evidence from China.” J. Environ. Manage. 268: 110700. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110700.
George, G., A. M. McGahan, and J. Prabhu. 2012. “Innovation for inclusive growth: Towards a theoretical framework and a research agenda.” J. Manage. Stud. 49 (4): 661–683. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6486.2012.01048.x.
Grabowski, Z. J., T. McPhearson, and S. T. A. Pickett. 2023. “Transforming US urban green infrastructure planning to address equity.” Landscape Urban Plann. 229: 104591. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2022.104591.
Guan, X. L., H. K. Wei, S. S. Lu, Q. Dai, and H. J. Su. 2018. “Assessment on the urbanization strategy in China: Achievements, challenges and reflections.” Habitat Int. 71: 97–109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2017.11.009.
Guidotti, R., H. Chmielewski, V. Unnikrishnan, P. Gardoni, T. McAllister, and J. van de Lindt. 2016. “Modeling the resilience of critical infrastructure: The role of network dependencies.” Sustainable Resilient Infrastruct. 1 (3–4): 153–168. https://doi.org/10.1080/23789689.2016.1254999.
Haimes, Y. Y., B. M. Horowitz, J. H. Lambert, J. R. Santos, C. Y. Lian, and K. G. Crowther. 2005. “Inoperability input–output model for interdependent infrastructure sectors. I: Theory and methodology.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 11 (2): 67–79. https://doi.org/10.1061/(Asce)1076-0342(2005)11:2(67).
Hessami, A. R., V. Faghihi, A. Kim, and D. N. Ford. 2020. “Evaluating planning strategies for prioritizing projects in sustainability improvement programs.” Constr. Manag. Econ. 38 (8): 726–738. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2019.1608369.
Hu, W. Y., and R. Wang. 2019. “Which Chinese cities are more inclusive and why?” Cities 86: 51–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2018.12.010.
Ianchovichina, E., and S. Lundstrom. 2009. Inclusive growth analytics: Framework and application. Washington, DC: World Bank Policy Research Working.
Iniestra, J. G., and J. G. Gutierrez. 2009. “Multicriteria decisions on interdependent infrastructure transportation projects using an evolutionary-based framework.” Appl. Soft Comput. 9 (2): 512–526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2008.07.006.
Jalles, J. T., and U. de Mello. 2019. “Cross-country evidence on the determinants of inclusive growth episodes.” Rev. Dev. Econ. 23 (4): 1818–1839. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12605.
Jin, X., X. B. Zuo, X. L. Dong, Y. J. Dong, and H. H. Ding. 2021. “Analysis of the policy guarantee mechanism of rural infrastructure based on deep learning.” Technol. Forecasting Social Change 166: 120605. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120605.
Lee, N. 2019. “Inclusive growth in cities: A sympathetic critique.” Reg. Stud. 53 (3): 424–434. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2018.1476753.
Leng, X. 2022. “Digital revolution and rural family income: Evidence from China.” J. Rural Stud. 94: 336–343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2022.07.004.
Li, Q., L. Y. Zhang, L. M. Zhang, and S. Jha. 2021. “Exploring multi-level motivations towards green design practices: A system dynamics approach.” Sustainable Cities Soc. 64: 102490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102490.
Liu, G. W., L. Z. Wei, J. P. Gu, T. Zhou, and Y. Liu. 2020. “Benefit distribution in urban renewal from the perspectives of efficiency and fairness: A game theoretical model and the government’s role in China.” Cities 96: 102422. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.102422.
Liu, H. T., and Q. Y. He. 2019. “The effect of basic public service on urban–rural income inequality: A sys-GMM approach.” Econ. Res-Ekon. Istraz. 32 (1): 3211–3229. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677x.2019.1661005.
Long, H. L., S. S. Tu, D. Z. Ge, T. T. Li, and Y. S. Liu. 2016. “The allocation and management of critical resources in rural China under restructuring: Problems and prospects.” J. Rural Stud. 47: 392–412. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2016.03.011.
Melo, P. C., D. J. Graham, and R. Brage-Ardao. 2013. “The productivity of transport infrastructure investment: A meta-analysis of empirical evidence.” Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. 43 (5): 695–706. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2013.05.002.
Min, H.-S. J., W. Beyeler, T. Brown, Y. J. Son, and A. T. Jones. 2007. “Toward modeling and simulation of critical national infrastructure interdependencies.” IIE Trans. 39 (1): 57–71. https://doi.org/10.1080/07408170600940005.
Molero-Simarro, R. 2017. “Inequality in China revisited. The effect of functional distribution of income on urban top incomes, the urban–rural gap and the Gini index, 1978–2015.” China Econ. Rev. 42: 101–117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2016.11.006.
Nasirzadeh, H., H. Amin-Tahmasbi, and H. A. Khalili. 2021. “Investment analysis in privatization of National Iranian Drilling Company using systems dynamics and BWM technique.” Energ. Policy 148: 111963. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111963.
Ngepah, N. 2017. “A review of theories and evidence of inclusive growth: An economic perspective for Africa.” Curr. Opin. Environ. Sust. 24: 52–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2017.01.008.
OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2011. Divided we stand: Why inequality keeps rising. Paris: OECD.
Olivares-Aguila, J., and W. ElMaraghy. 2021. “System dynamics modelling for supply chain disruptions.” Int. J. Prod. Res. 59 (6): 1757–1775. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2020.1725171.
Ouyang, M. 2014. “Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 121: 43–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.06.040.
Oyinlola, M. A., A. A. Adedeji, M. O. Bolarinwa, and N. Olabisi. 2020. “Governance, domestic resource mobilization, and inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa.” Econ. Anal. Policy 65: 68–88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2019.11.006.
Páez-Pérez, D., and M. Sanchez-Silva. 2016. “A dynamic principal-agent framework for modeling the performance of infrastructure.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 254 (2): 576–594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2016.03.027.
Painter, G., and Z. Yu. 2014. “Caught in the housing bubble: Immigrants’ housing outcomes in traditional gateways and newly emerging destinations.” Urban Stud. 51 (4): 781–809. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098013494425.
Plieninger, T., et al. 2015. “Exploring ecosystem-change and society through a landscape lens: Recent progress in European landscape research.” Ecol. Soc. 20 (2): 5. https://doi.org/10.5751/Es-07443-200205.
Qian, J. W. 2017. “Improving policy design and building capacity in local experiments: Equalization of public service in China’s urban–rural integration pilot.” Public Admin. Dev. 37 (1): 51–64. https://doi.org/10.1002/pad.1785.
Qiu, L. J., and D. X. Zhao. 2019. “Urban inclusiveness and income inequality in China.” Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. 74: 57–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2018.11.006.
Redmond, P., and S. Mcguinness. 2019. “The gender wage gap in Europe: Job preferences, gender convergence and distributional effects.” Oxford Bull. Econ. Stat. 81 (3): 564–587. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12282.
Scott, A. J. 2002. “Regional push: Towards a geography of development and growth in low- and middle-income countries.” Third World Q. 23 (1): 137–161. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436590220108216.
Shah, P., E. Hamilton, F. Armendaris, and H. Lee. 2015. World-inclusive cities approach paper. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
Shen, L. Y., S. J. Jiang, and H. P. Yuan. 2012. “Critical indicators for assessing the contribution of infrastructure projects to coordinated urban–rural development in China.” Habitat Int. 36 (2): 237–246. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2011.10.003.
Shen, L. Y., W. S. Lu, Y. Peng, and S. J. Jiang. 2011a. “Critical assessment indicators for measuring benefits of rural infrastructure investment in China.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 17 (4): 176–183. https://doi.org/10.1061/(Asce)Is.1943-555x.0000066.
Shen, L. Y., Y. Z. Wu, and X. L. Zhang. 2011b. “Key assessment indicators for the sustainability of infrastructure projects.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage. 137 (6): 441–451. https://doi.org/10.1061/(Asce)Co.1943-7862.0000315.
Shi, Y. Y., S. Guo, and P. Y. Sun. 2017. “The role of infrastructure in China’s regional economic growth.” J. Asian Econ. 49: 26–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2017.02.004.
Solow, R. M. 1956. “A contribution to the theory of economic-growth.” Q. J. Econ. 70 (1): 65–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513.
Stapelberg, R. F. 2008. “Infrastructure systems interdependencies and risk informed decision making (RIDM): Impact scenario analysis of infrastructure risks induced by natural, technological and intentional hazards.” J. Syst. Cybern. Inf. 6: 21–27.
Sterman, J. 2000. Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. New York: Irwin McGraw-Hill.
Thacker, S., D. Adshead, M. Fay, S. Hallegatte, M. Harvey, H. Menus, N. O’Regan, J. Rozenberg, G. Watkins, and J. W. Hall. 2019. “Infrastructure for sustainable development.” Nat. Sustain. 2 (4): 324–331. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0256-8.
Vellala, P. S., M. K. Madala, and U. Chhattopadhyay. 2014. “A theoretical model for inclusive economic growth in Indian context.” Int. J. Humanit. Soc. Sci. 4 (13): 229–235.
Wahnschafft, R., and F. Wei. 2015. “Urban China: Toward efficient, inclusive, and sustainable urbanization.” Nat. Resour. Forum 39 (2): 151–152. https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-8947.12072.
Wang, S. L., S. K. Tan, S. F. Yang, Q. W. Lin, and L. Zhang. 2019. “Urban-biased land development policy and the urban–rural income gap: Evidence from Hubei Province, China.” Land Use Policy 87: 104066. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104066.
Wang, W., Y. Z. Wu, and C. Choguill. 2021. “Prosperity and inclusion: The impact of public housing supply on urban inclusive growth in China.” Land Use Policy 105: 105399. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lusepol.2021.105399.
Wessel, D. 2015. “The typical male US worker earned less in 2014 than in 1973.” The Wall Street Journal, September 18, 2015.
Wiesel, I., and F. Q. Liu. 2021. “Conceptualising modes of redistribution in public urban infrastructure.” Urban Stud. 58 (8): 1561–1580. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098020913188.
World Bank. 1994. World development report 1994: Infrastructure for development. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Yao, H., L. Y. Shen, Y. T. Tan, and J. L. Hao. 2011. “Simulating the impacts of policy scenarios on the sustainability performance of infrastructure projects.” Automat. Constr. 20 (8): 1060–1069. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2011.04.007.
Young, A. 2013. “Inequality, the urban-rural gap, and migration.” Q. J. Econ. 128 (4): 1727–1785. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjt025.
Zhang, C., J.-J. Kong, and S. P. Simonovic. 2018. “Restoration resource allocation model for enhancing resilience of interdependent infrastructure systems.” Saf. Sci. 102: 169–177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.10.014.
Zhang, X. L., Y. Z. Wu, M. Skitmore, and S. J. Jiang. 2015. “Sustainable infrastructure projects in balancing urban–rural development: Towards the goal of efficiency and equity.” J. Clean. Prod. 107: 445–454. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.09.068.
Zhang, Y., X. Wang, and K. Z. Chen. 2012. “Growth and distributive effects of public infrastructure investments in China.” In Infrastructure and economic growth in Asia. Economic studies in inequality, social exclusion and well-being, edited by J. Cockburn, Y. Dissou, J. Y. Duclos, and L. Tiberti, 87–116. Cham, Switzerland: Springer.
Zhong, S. J., M. S. Wang, Y. Zhu, Z. G. Chen, and X. J. Huang. 2022. “Urban expansion and the urban–rural income gap: Empirical evidence from China.” Cities 129: 103831. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.103831.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 150Issue 4December 2024

History

Received: Aug 3, 2023
Accepted: Apr 24, 2024
Published online: Jul 17, 2024
Published in print: Dec 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Dec 17, 2024

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

ASCE Technical Topics:

Authors

Affiliations

Qingbin Shi [email protected]
Ph.D. Candidate, School of Economics and Management, Dalian Univ. of Technology, Hi-Tech Industrial Zone, Dalian 116024, China. Email: [email protected]
Associate Professor, School of Economics and Management, Dalian Univ. of Technology, Hi-Tech Industrial Zone, Dalian 116024, China (corresponding author). Email: [email protected]
Professor, School of Economics and Management, Dalian Univ. of Technology, Hi-Tech Industrial Zone, Dalian 116024, China. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0053-6561. Email: [email protected]
Assistant Professor, School of Economics and Management, Dalian Univ. of Technology, Hi-Tech Industrial Zone, Dalian 116024, China. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5256-747X. Email: [email protected]

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share