Understanding Urban Growth and Shrinkage From a Multiscale Perspective: Case Study of Jilin Province, China
Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 149, Issue 2
Abstract
The development statuses of cities are intimately associated with their spatial scales. Multiscale trajectories of cities are lenses through which can be discerned the pattern and tendency of regional development. In this paper, using comparisons of demographic and economic development, geographic detectors, and hierarchical logistic regressions, we examine the evolutionary characteristics and influential factors of multiscale urban development in Jilin Province, China. The findings show that alongside the “top-down” transformations of the spatial scales, the typologies of urban development tend to diversify. Economic and political factors played key roles in the divergence of growth and shrinkage of prefecture-level, while natural and social factors had strong effects on the divergence between growth and shrinkage of county-level cities and small towns. Moreover, urban development has demonstrated scale connection: towns under the jurisdictions of absolutely growing county-level cities are likely to be subjected to smart shrinkage; towns under the jurisdictions of smartly growing county-level cities are prone to potential shrinkage; towns under the jurisdictions of absolutely shrinking county-level cities are at risk of absolute shrinkage. Our findings recommend that regional policies take multiscale spaces into account to capture regularity of regional development.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This work was financed by the Natural Science Foundation of China (41871158, 42071162, 42171191, 42201211, 42171236), Young Scientist Group Project of Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (2022QNXZ02). We would like to thank the editors and the two anonymous reviewers for the helpful comments on previous versions of this paper.
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Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 149 • Issue 2 • June 2023
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© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Jun 16, 2021
Accepted: Nov 30, 2022
Published online: Feb 21, 2023
Published in print: Jun 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Jul 21, 2023
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