Research Article
Oct 1970
Design Capacities to Accommodate Forecast Uncertainties
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VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of the Sanitary Engineering Division
Volume 96, Issue 5
Abstract
Economic safety factors have been developed to provide a hedge against errors inherent in using population forecasts. Optimal treatment plant expansions were calculated by minimizing the expected value of long-term investment costs. Factors considered were growth rate, forecast uncertainty interest rate, inflation, and learning-curve effect, and construction cost economy-of-scale. When a linear growth rate is anticipated, the interest rate and the economy of scale factor M determine the design period, the growth rate does not. However, when the growth rate is uncertain, it is possible to hedge against the possible cost of selecting the wrong period of design by reducing the design capacity 5 to 10%. Exponential growth always yields a shorter design life than the linear growth pattern. Therefore, even when a linear growth in demand is not expected, it may be helpful to use the linear growth expansion criterion to establish an upper bound on the design capacity.
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Published In
Journal of the Sanitary Engineering Division
Volume 96 • Issue 5 • October 1970
Pages: 1183 - 1210
Copyright
© 1970 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: Oct 1970
Published online: Feb 12, 2021
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Authors
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Paul M. Berthouex, AM.ASCE
Res. Engr., Gesellschaft für Kläranlagen und Wasserversorgung, GWK, Mannheim, W. Germany
Lawrence B. Polkowski, M.ASCE
Prof. of Civ. Engr., Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, Wis.
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Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.