Application of Multidisciplinary Community Resilience Modeling to Reduce Disaster Risk: Building Back Better
Publication: Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 38, Issue 3
Abstract
From December 10 to December 11, 2021, a deadly tornado outbreak struck across several states in the US, including Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. This tornado outbreak resulted in at least $3.9 billion in damage, more than 90 fatalities, and hundreds of injuries. Mayfield, Kentucky, a small city in the eastern United States, was hit by a long-track tornado rated as an Enhanced Fujita 4 (EF4) scale and was one of the communities most heavily damaged during the tornado outbreak. Following the 2021 tornado event, an analysis was performed in the Interdependent Networked Community Resilience Modeling Environment (IN-CORE) for the City of Mayfield to investigate a design code change for residential structures and its effect on communitywide metrics related to functionality and dislocation. Specifically, the IN-CORE modeling environment was used to hindcast the community-level building damage and forecast the community-level building recovery in Mayfield for residential buildings. This required the development of a Mayfield test bed for IN-CORE with a focus on buildings. The generalization of multidisciplinary community resilience modeling from a test bed community to a real community impacted by a recent major tornado event is intended to benchmark that IN-CORE has a strong potential and capability to forecast/hindcast community resilience and provide what-if scenarios for decision makers, city planners, and stakeholders in communities with similar sizes.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some data, models, or codes that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The Center for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning is a NIST-funded Center of Excellence; the Center is funded through a cooperative agreement between the US National Institute of Standards and Technology and Colorado State University (NIST Financial Assistance Award Nos. 70NANB15H044 and 70NANB20H008). The authors also thank Mr. Jarrod Loerzel of NIST for his data and GIS expertise supporting this study. The views expressed are those of the presenter and may not represent the official position of the National Institute of Standards and Technology or the US Department of Commerce.
References
Amini, M. O., and J. W. van de Lindt. 2014. “Quantitative insight into rational tornado design wind speeds for residential wood-frame structures using fragility approach.” J. Struct. Eng. 140 (7): 04014033. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0000914.
ASCE. 2021. Minimum design loads and associated criteria for buildings and other structures. ASCE/SEI 7-22. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Clinton, W. J. 2006. “Lessons learned from tsunami recovery: Key propositions for building back better.” Accessed August 21, 2023. https://reliefweb.int/report/thailand/lessons-learned-tsunami-recovery-key-propositions-building-back-better.
Fernandez, G., and I. Ahmed. 2019. “Build back better approach to disaster recovery: Research trends since 2006.” Prog. Disaster Sci. 1 (Jun): 100003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100003.
Haan, F. L., Jr., P. P. Sarkar, and W. A. Gallus. 2008. “Design, construction and performance of a large tornado simulator for wind engineering applications.” Eng. Struct. 30 (4): 1146–1159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2007.07.010.
Jordan, E., and A. Javernick-Will. 2013. “Indicators of community recovery: Content analysis and Delphi approach.” Nat. Hazards Rev. 14 (1): 21–28. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000087.
Koliou, M., H. Masoomi, and J. W. van de Lindt. 2017. “Performance assessment of tilt-up big-box buildings subjected to extreme hazards: Tornadoes and earthquakes.” J. Perform. Constr. Facil. 31 (5): 04017060. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0001059.
Koliou, M., and J. W. van de Lindt. 2020. “Development of building restoration functions for use in community recovery planning to tornadoes.” Nat. Hazards Rev. 21 (2): 04020004. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000361.
Li, Y., and B. R. Ellingwood. 2009. “Framework for multihazard risk assessment and mitigation for wood-frame residential construction.” J. Struct. Eng. 135 (2): 159–168. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2009)135:2(159).
Lin, P., and N. Wang. 2017. “Stochastic post-disaster functionality recovery of community building portfolios II: Application.” Struct. Saf. 69 (May): 106–117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2017.05.004.
Masoomi, H., M. R. Ameri, and J. W. van de Lindt. 2018. “Wind performance enhancement strategies for residential wood-frame buildings.” J. Perform. Constr. Facil. 32 (3): 04018024. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0001172.
Masoomi, H., and J. W. van de Lindt. 2018. “Restoration and functionality assessment of a community subjected to tornado hazard.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng. 14 (3): 275–291. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2017.1354030.
McAlister, S. 2022. “Awe-Inspiring; Mayfield residents have stepped up to help rebuild following Kentucky tornados.” Accessed December 7, 2022. https://www.whas11.com/article/weather/kentucky-tornadoes/mayfield-recovery-families-homeless-houseless-long-term-recovery-group-western-kentucky-tornadoes/417-4bb4a532-7437-4afb-9592-49dd33b640f8.
Memari, M., N. Attary, H. Masoomi, H. Mahmoud, J. W. van de Lindt, S. F. Pilkington, and M. R. Ameri. 2018. “Minimal building fragility portfolio for damage assessment of communities subjected to tornadoes.” J. Struct. Eng. 144 (7): 04018072. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0002047.
Niemeyer, L. 2022. “Displaced Kentuckians still searching for housing after tornadoes.” Accessed December 13, 2022. https://www.lpm.org/news/2022-02-14/displaced-kentuckians-still-searching-for-housing-after-tornadoes.
Nozhati, S., Y. Sarkale, E. K. Chong, and B. R. Ellingwood. 2020. “Optimal stochastic dynamic scheduling for managing community recovery from natural hazards.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe. 193 (Jan): 106627. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106627.
NSI (National Structure Inventory). 2022a. “National structure inventory data.” Accessed August 21, 2023. https://nsi.sec.usace.army.mil/downloads/.
NSI (National Structure Inventory). 2022b. “National structure inventory technical documentation.” Accessed August 21, 2023. https://www.hec.usace.army.mil/confluence/nsi/technicalreferences/latest/technical-documentation.
Rosenheim, N. 2021. Detailed household and housing unit characteristics: Data and replication code. Gainesville, FL: DesignSafe-CI.
Roueche, D. B., F. T. Lombardo, and D. O. Prevatt. 2017. “Empirical approach to evaluating the tornado fragility of residential structures.” J. Struct. Eng. 143 (9): 04017123. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001854.
Speck, E. 2021. “1,200 Kentuckians remain displaced after deadly tornado outbreak.” Accessed December 28, 2021. https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/1200-kentuckians-remain-displaced-after-deadly-tornado-outbreak.
Standohar-Alfano, C. D., and J. W. van de Lindt. 2015. “Empirically based probabilistic tornado hazard analysis of the United States using 1973–2011 data.” Nat. Hazards Rev. 16 (1): 04014013. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000138.
Sun, L., B. Stojadinovic, and G. Sansavini. 2019. “Resilience evaluation framework for integrated civil infrastructure–community systems under seismic hazard.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 25 (2): 04019016. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000492.
UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction). 2016. “Report of the open-ended intergovernmental expert working group on indicators and terminology relating to disaster risk reduction.” Accessed August 21, 2023. https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/852089?ln=en.
Unnikrishnan, V. U., and M. Barbato. 2016. “Performance-based comparison of different storm mitigation techniques for residential buildings.” J. Struct. Eng. 142 (6): 04016011. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001469.
US Census Bureau. 2010a. “TIGER2010/Tabblock/2010.” Accessed August 21, 2023. https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER2010/TABBLOCK/2010/.
US Census Bureau. 2010b. Table P1: Race, 2010 DEC summary file 1. Washington, DC: US Census Bureau.
US Census Bureau. 2010c. Table H16: Tenure by household size, 2010 DEC summary file 1. Washington, DC: US Census Bureau.
US Census Bureau. 2010d. Table H5: Vacancy status, 2010 DEC summary file 1. Washington, DC: US Census Bureau.
US Census Bureau. 2010e. “Table P42: Group quarters population by group quarters type, 2010 DEC summary file 1.” Accessed August 21, 2023. https://data.census.gov/table?q=mayfield+h5&y=2010.
US Census Bureau. 2010f. “Table B19001: Household income in the past 12 months, 2010 ACS 5-year estimates detailed tables.” Accessed August 21, 2023. https://data.census.gov/table?q=mayfield+b19001&y=2010.
US Census Bureau. 2010g. “Table S1901: Income in the past 12 months, 2010 ACS 5-year estimates subject tables.” Accessed August 21, 2023. https://data.census.gov/table?q=Mayfield+S1901&y=2010.
US Department of Commerce and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 2022a. “The violent tornado outbreak of December 10-11, 2021.” Accessed December 7, 2022. https://www.weather.gov/pah/December-10th-11th-2021-Tornado.
US Department of Commerce and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 2022b. “Tornado damage survey summaries.” Accessed December 21, 2021. https://www.weather.gov/crh/dec112021.
van de Lindt, J. W., et al. 2023. “The interdependent networked community resilience modeling environment (IN-CORE).” Resilient Cities Struct. 2 (2): 57–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcns.2023.07.004.
Wang, W. L., and J. W. van de Lindt. 2021. “Quantitative modeling of residential building disaster recovery and effects of pre-and post-event policies.” Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 59 (Jun): 102259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102259.
Wang, W. L., and J. W. van de Lindt. 2022. “Quantifying the effect of improved school and residential building codes for tornadoes in community resilience.” Resilient Cities Struct. 1 (1): 65–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcns.2022.04.001.
Wang, W. L., J. W. van de Lindt, B. Hartman, H. Cutler, J. L. Kruse, T. P. McAllister, and S. Hamideh. 2022. “Determination of individual building performance targets to achieve community-level social and economic resilience metrics.” J. Struct. Eng. 148 (5): 04022045. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0003338.
Wang, W. L., J. W. van de Lindt, N. Rosenheim, H. Cutler, B. Hartman, J. Sung Lee, and D. Calderon. 2021. “Effect of residential building wind retrofits on social and economic community-level resilience metrics.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 27 (4): 04021034. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000642.
Wang, W. L., M. Watson, J. W. van de Lindt, and Y. Xiao. 2023. “Commercial building recovery methodology for use in community resilience modeling.” Nat. Hazards Rev. 24 (4): 04023031. https://doi.org/10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-1728.
Wang, Y., N. Wang, P. Lin, B. Ellingwood, and H. Mahmoud. 2020. “Life-cycle analysis (LCA) to restore community building portfolios by building back better I: Building portfolio LCA.” Struct. Saf. 84 (Aug): 101919. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2019.101919.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 38 • Issue 3 • June 2024
Copyright
© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 21, 2023
Accepted: Dec 19, 2023
Published online: Apr 4, 2024
Published in print: Jun 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Sep 4, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.