Technical Papers
Oct 17, 2024

Recommendations for Active-Learning Kriging Reliability Analysis of Bridge Structures

Publication: Journal of Bridge Engineering
Volume 30, Issue 1

Abstract

Active-learning Kriging (AK) was developed as a surrogate-aided reliability technique to address the need for efficient reliability estimation when assessing complex limit states. The results of AK analyses are sensitive to the choice of the regression function, correlation function, learning function and associated stopping criteria, and reliability estimation technique, with unique sets of these input parameters referred to as AK configurations. For the reliable use of AK analysis in bridge reliability assessment, recommendations regarding the best-performing AK configurations are needed to balance the desired accuracy-to-efficiency of the simulation. The objective of this study was to recommend sets of AK configurations for the reliability analysis of reinforced-concrete bridge girders and piers that can be readily used by engineers to perform AK analysis for bridge design optimization and assessment. An extensive parametric analysis, using 432 unique AK configurations and over 3,000 AK analyses, was performed, combined with the application of a comprehensive metric system to recommend the top five best-performing AK configurations for bridge analysis based on the root mean square error, the absolute average error, the degree of consistency, and total number of training points.

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Data Availability Statement

Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are proprietary or confidential in nature and may only be provided with restrictions. The AK analysis computer script is confidential.

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to acknowledge the financial contributions of Dalhousie University, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), and the Nova Scotia Department of Public Works.

Notation

The following symbols are used in this paper:
AIdeal
area of idealized cross-sectional geometry;
Ag
gross cross-sectional area;
Asi
area of steel in the ith layer of rebar;
Ast
total area of steel in the cross-section;
B
width of the section;
Cr
compressive force;
db
diameter of steel bar reinforcements;
di
depth to ith layer of rebar;
EFF(x)
effective feasibility learning function;
F
regression function;
F
regression realizations;
fy
yield strength of steel;
fc
compressive strength of concrete;
f(x)
regression evaluation of x;
G(x)
responses generated by original model;
G^(x)
responses generated by Kriging surrogate model;
G¯(x)
mean value of Kriging prediction;
H
height of the cross-section;
Hc(x)
corrected H learning function;
H(x)
H learning function;
I1
transformed RMSE;
I2
transformed AAE;
I3
transformed TTPs;
I4
transformed DoC;
KO(x)
KO learning function;
L
correlation length vector;
Leffect
live load effect;
L*
optimum correlation length vector;
MDSW
dead load moment due to self-weight;
MDWS
dead load moment due to wearing surface;
ML
live load moment;
Mc
compressive moment from concrete zone;
Min
vector of initial inputs;
Mout
vector of initial outputs;
Mr
moment resistance;
Msi
tensile moment generated by the ith layer of reinforcing bars;
m
number of design sites within design of experiments;
N
minimum number of trials;
NAK-MCS
number of trials in the AK-MCS analysis;
Nadded
number of added training points;
Nbl
number of reinforcing bar layers within the cross-section;
Ncalls
summation number of initial and added training points;
Ncs
number of concrete sections with different base widths;
Nf
total number of failed trials;
NI
total number of identical analyses;
Ninitial
number of initial training set;
NMCS
total number of trials in a Monte Carlo simulation;
Ns
number of successful reliability analyses;
n
number of random variables;
P
number of initial design points required to generate Kriging surrogate model;
PF
professional factor;
Pc
axial force in concrete under compression;
Pf
probability of failure;
PfAKMCS
probability of failure of AK-MCS;
PfAKMCSi
Probability of failure of the ith identical AK configuration;
PfMCS
probability of failure of Monte Carlo simulation;
Pr
axial load resistance;
Prmax
maximum allowable axial load;
Pro
axial load resistance with an eccentricity value of zero;
Psi
axial force in the ith steel rebar under tension;
Py
axial force from interaction diagram;
p^
expected probability of failure;
q
number of model outputs;
q^
expected probability of survival;
R
correlation matrix;
REIF(x)
reliability based expected improvement learning function;
R(x)
resistance model;
r(x)
correlation evaluation for x;
Si
vector containing the inputs from all design sites;
Ti
tensile force in the ith layer of rebar;
U(x)
U learning function;
ε(x)
error measurements that determine the border of the desired range;
V
coefficient of variation;
v1
linear scale;
v2
exponential scale;
v3
logarithmic scale;
X
design site;
x
vector made up of randomly generated variables;
Yi
vector containing the outputs from all design sites;
Z
stochastic process;
Zα
Z value for selected confidence level;
β
reliability index;
βMCS
reliability index for the MCS for a given geometry;
βj
matrix of regression coefficients;
β*
Kriging shape predictor factor;
γ*
Kriging shape prediction factor;
λ
bias;
μ
mean value;
μG^(x)
mean value of the Kriging predictor;
ρ
reinforcement ratio;
σG^(x)
standard deviation of the Kriging predictor; and
φ(x)
variance of the Kriging predictor.

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Go to Journal of Bridge Engineering
Journal of Bridge Engineering
Volume 30Issue 1January 2025

History

Received: Oct 2, 2023
Accepted: Jul 11, 2024
Published online: Oct 17, 2024
Published in print: Jan 1, 2025
Discussion open until: Mar 17, 2025

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Authors

Affiliations

Elizabeth Godin-Hebert [email protected]
Ph.D. Candidate, Dept. of Civil and Resource Engineering, Dalhousie Univ., Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada. Email: [email protected]
Koosha Khorramian, Ph.D. [email protected]
Structural Engineer, Norlander Oudah Engineering Limited (NOEL), Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada; Former Postdoctoral Fellow, Dept. of Civil and Resource Engineering, Dalhousie Univ., Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada. Email: [email protected]
Associate Professor, Dept. of Civil and Resource Engineering, Dalhousie Univ., Halifax, NS B3H 1Y1, Canada (corresponding author). ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1827-286X. Email: [email protected]

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