Comparison of Markovian-Based Bridge Deterioration Model Approaches
Publication: Journal of Bridge Engineering
Volume 28, Issue 8
Abstract
Bridge management systems are a critical component in the toolbox of those who are responsible for maintaining a population of bridges. Deterioration models are generally incorporated in bridge management systems, but minimal consideration is paid to how those models work and how the assumptions inherent to the model might influence the prediction. This paper identifies, synthesizes, and assesses typical bridge deterioration model approaches from the stochastic family of models. Each model considered is applied to two data sets for bridges in Texas and compared. A novel modeling approach that considers all models together is described. The novel approach demonstrates the value of considering multiple models when attempting to predict a future condition or behavior. It was found that a simple multiple model approach inherently and transparently reduces the uncertainty of a single model approach.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Bridge Engineering
Volume 28 • Issue 8 • August 2023
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 24, 2022
Accepted: Mar 2, 2023
Published online: May 16, 2023
Published in print: Aug 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Oct 16, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Architectural engineering
- Bridge components
- Bridge engineering
- Bridge management
- Building management
- Business management
- Comparative studies
- Decision making
- Decision support systems
- Deterioration
- Engineering fundamentals
- Maintenance and operation
- Markov process
- Materials characterization
- Materials engineering
- Mathematics
- Methodology (by type)
- Practice and Profession
- Probability
- Research methods (by type)
- Stochastic processes
- Structural engineering
- Systems engineering
- Systems management
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Cited by
- Nour Almarahlleh, Hexu Liu, Osama Abudayyeh, Rabia Almamlook, Predicting Concrete Bridge Deck Deterioration: A Hyperparameter Optimization Approach, Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities, 10.1061/JPCFEV.CFENG-4714, 38, 3, (2024).