Earthquake Prediction: A Socioeconomic View

The advent of earthquake prediction technology spells opportunities and problems for engineers. Following a brief discussion of the technology of prediction, seven major issues are identified and reviewed. These chiefly relate to the role of engineers as assessors of the safety or vulnerability of various buildings and structures. Relevant issues deal with uncertainty, standards, fraud, liability, costs, priorities, and government regulations. A more in-depth look at the supply and demand for engineering services following a prediction is made. Finally several concrete recommendations on what the engineering community can presently do to prepare for a future prediction are presented.