Speed-Based Reliability Analysis of 3D Highway Alignments Passing through Two-Lane Mountainous Terrain
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 8, Issue 4
Abstract
The present highway geometric design is governed by design speed and considers all other variables such as terrain, roadway, and driver characteristics as deterministic. The behavior of road users can be impulsive, and there is always an element of uncertainty; it requires the introduction of reliability ideas into highway design. Reliability analysis is one method that explains the uncertainty in the geometric design process and assesses the risk related to a particular design feature. The study selected 38 curves with variable geometry located along National Highway 953 (NH-953) in India’s hilly terrains. A total of 13,680 samples of speed data (360 data points for one curve) were collected using the radar gun at the curve midpoint. The first-order reliability method was used to calculate the reliability index () and probability of noncompliance (). The results showed that the of a car is less than heavy commercial vehicles (HCV), and the corresponding was higher for a car than HCV. Since HCV is moving slower than a car, the safety margin (difference between design and vehicle mean speeds) is more, and is less. Further, the vehicle mean speed increases, the safety margin decreases, and the resultant of the curves decreases ( increases). Therefore, the chances of crashes are increased. Also, cars have 30% to 32% higher than HCV. Additionally, the Tobit regression approach was used to develop a model. The results revealed that deflection angle is positively correlated while curve length, tangent length, , and total crashes negatively correlate with . Lastly, the developed safety warrants are helpful for the highway authority to identify the unreliable highway segment and provide safety measures to increase the reliability of the segment and reduce the likelihood of crashes.
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Data Availability Statement
The data (curve geometry, vehicle speed, and crash data), model or codes created or used throughout the study are available from the corresponding author by reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful to the TEQIP-III, a Government of India initiative, for sponsoring this project. The project is entitled “Influence of Geometric Design Consistency and Functional Condition of Road on Vehicle’s Operational Characteristics in Mountainous Regions” (Project No. SVNIT/CED/SSA/TEQIP-III/44/2019). The authors thank the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) for providing the highway section plan and profile data and the police authority for providing crash data. We also thank all individuals who helped collect the speed data (P. Chaudhari, S. Bhardva, C. Akbari, P. Patil, H. R. Surya, P. Diyora, R. Italiya, J. Mistry, R. Rathod, S. Bharadva, and Y. Ali).
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 8 • Issue 4 • December 2022
Copyright
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 17, 2022
Accepted: Jun 12, 2022
Published online: Aug 26, 2022
Published in print: Dec 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Jan 26, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Automobiles
- Business management
- Curvature
- Design (by type)
- Engineering fundamentals
- Geography
- Geomatics
- Geometrics
- Geometry
- Highway and road design
- Highway transportation
- Infrastructure
- Mathematics
- Practice and Profession
- Public administration
- Public health and safety
- Safety
- Terrain
- Traffic accidents
- Traffic engineering
- Traffic management
- Transportation engineering
- Vehicles
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Cited by
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