Improved Model for Computing Time-Variant Reliability Based on Outcrossing Rate
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VIEW THE REPLYPublication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 6, Issue 4
Abstract
Time-variant reliability problems have been studied widely by scholars recently, and they usually are solved on the basis of the outcrossing rate. The common method to calculate the outcrossing rate involves a static parallel system reliability problem of two components, and sequentially the time-variant reliability can be computed by Rice’s formula. This formula, however, is not ideal because of its assumptions of Poisson distribution and independence for outcrossings, and thus a significant error may be generated. Therefore, the formula for computing time-variant reliability was rederived and modified in this paper. Time-variant reliability first was derived based on the failure rate, and then the approximate relationship between the outcrossing rate and failure rate was provided. Consequently, Rice’s formula for calculating time-variant reliability based on outcrossing rate can be modified from the perspective of failure rate, which can remove the drawbacks of the assumptions of Rice’s formula. Several examples were provided to validate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.
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Data Availability Statements
All data, models, and code used during the study appear in the published article.
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Contract number No. 51775090.
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ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 6 • Issue 4 • December 2020
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© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 26, 2019
Accepted: Jun 22, 2020
Published online: Sep 18, 2020
Published in print: Dec 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Feb 18, 2021
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