Prediction of Permafrost Extent along the Hudson Bay Railway Corridor Using Freezing and Thawing Indices
Publication: Geo-Congress 2024
ABSTRACT
Freezing and thawing indices are practical for assessing and predicting climate change, energy balance, carbon exchange, surface and subsurface hydrology, moisture balance, and productivity. Using daily maximum and minimum temperature records as well as future projections for 2000–2100, freezing and thawing indices were calculated along the Hudson Bay Railway. We applied a linear regression method to analyze past trends in the freezing and thawing indices over time and project these trends over three representative concentrated pathways (RCPs). The results of this study show that the freezing index has decreased significantly since 2000 and is expected to continue to decrease in the future, while the thawing index shows an increasing trend. As altitude increases, freezing index decreases while thawing index increases. According to the results of calculating frost numbers, permafrost coverage in sporadic zones will decrease to less than 10% by 2100. In continuous permafrost regions, the permafrost is projected to become discontinuous by 2100.
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Information
Published In
Geo-Congress 2024
Pages: 760 - 768
History
Published online: Feb 22, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Bays
- Climate change
- Climates
- Coastal engineering
- Coasts, oceans, ports, and waterways engineering
- Cold regions engineering
- Construction engineering
- Construction management
- Energy engineering
- Energy sources (by type)
- Environmental engineering
- Freeze and thaw
- Frost
- Hydro power
- Infrastructure
- Permafrost
- Project management
- Rail transportation
- Renewable energy
- Transportation corridors
- Transportation engineering
- Transportation management
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