Evaluating Settlement Risk due to Fill Placement: Updating Consolidation Settlement Parameters Using Bayesian Method
Publication: Geo-Congress 2024
ABSTRACT
Estimation of short- and long-term settlement in compressible soils is complex and critical for building projects. Conventional prediction methods use in situ and laboratory geotechnical data obtained at selected locations during the site investigation. The reliability of designs that utilize selected design parameters is affected by the uncertainty associated with these parameters. Settlement monitoring during construction using the observational method can be used to reduce the uncertainty in settlement parameters. In this paper, the Bayesian method was used in association with laboratory data and settlement monitoring data to update the settlement parameters and predictions due to fill placement for construction of a data center project. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm were used to estimate updated geotechnical parameters for prediction of future settlement. The predictions were shown to converge to the field measurements, verifying closely the originally obtained investigation parameters, and greatly reducing uncertainty regarding future performance of the fill.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Geo-Congress 2024
Pages: 721 - 730
History
Published online: Feb 22, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Consolidated soils
- Construction engineering
- Construction methods
- Continuum mechanics
- Dynamics (solid mechanics)
- Earth materials
- Engineering fundamentals
- Engineering mechanics
- Fills
- Foundation settlement
- Foundations
- Geomaterials
- Geomechanics
- Geotechnical engineering
- Information management
- Mathematics
- Motion (dynamics)
- Parameters (statistics)
- Soil dynamics
- Soil mechanics
- Soil settlement
- Soils (by type)
- Solid mechanics
- Statistics
- Structural settlement
- Uncertainty principles
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