Reconciling Bias in Moderate Magnitude Earthquake Ground Motions Predicted by Numerical Simulations
Publication: Geo-Congress 2024
ABSTRACT
Recent studies found a significant underprediction in ground motion intensity measures for finite-fault simulations of moderate magnitude events in southern California relative to established ground motion models. This study aims to understand the source(s) of this bias by evaluating ground motion residuals. For this, simulations have been performed for a total of 27 well-recorded earthquakes in southern California. Systematic efforts have been employed to identify the source(s) of bias by ruling out factors that are insignificant. Preliminary findings indicate that the magnitude-area scaling used in the simulations is the likely major cause of the observed bias. Adjustment in the source attributes on event-by-event basis is underway to study if the observed bias can be reconciled.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this chapter.
REFERENCES
Ancheta, T. D., et al. (2014). NGA-West2 Database. Earthquake Spectra, 30(3), 989–1005. https://doi.org/10.1193/070913EQS197M.
Boore, D. M. (2003). Simulation of Ground Motion Using the Stochastic Method. Pure Appl. Geophys., 160.
Boore, D. M., and Joyner, W. B. (1997). Site amplifications for generic rock sites. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 87(2), 327–341. https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0870020327.
Boore, D. M., Stewart, J. P., Seyhan, E., and Atkinson, G. M. (2014). NGA-West2 equations for predicting PGA, PGV, and 5% damped PSA for shallow crustal earthquakes. Earthquake Spectra, 30(3), 1057–1085. https://doi.org/10.1193/070113EQS184M.
Buckreis, T. E., Nweke, C. C., Wang, P., Brandenberg, S. J., Mazzoni, S., and Stewart, J. P. (2023). Relational Database for California Strong Ground Motions. 461–470.
Detweiler, S. T., and Wein, A. M. (2018). The HayWired earthquake scenario. US Department of the Interior, US Geological Survey.
Frankel, A., Wirth, E., Marafi, N., Vidale, J., and Stephenson, W. (2018). Broadband Synthetic Seismograms for Magnitude 9 Earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathrust Based on 3D Simulations and Stochastic Synthetics, Part 1: Methodology and Overall ResultsMethodology and Overall Results. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(5A), 2347–2369.
Graves, R., and Pitarka, A. (2015). Refinements to the Graves and Pitarka (2010) broadband ground‐motion simulation method. Seismological Research Letters, 86(1), 75–80.
Graves, R. W., and Pitarka, A. (2010). Broadband ground-motion simulation using a hybrid approach. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 100(5A), 2095–2123.
Hough, S. E., and Graves, R. W. (2020). The 1933 Long Beach Earthquake (California, USA): Ground Motions and Rupture Scenario. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 10017. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-66299-w.
Jones, L. M., and Benthien, M. (2011). Preparing for a “Big One”: The great southern California ShakeOut. Earthquake Spectra, 27(2), 575–595.
Maechling, P. J., Silva, F., Callaghan, S., and Jordan, T. H. (2014). SCEC Broadband Platform: System Architecture and Software Implementation. Seismological Research Letters, 86(1), 27–38. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220140125.
Nweke, C. C., Stewart, J. P., Graves, R. W., Goulet, C. A., and Brandenberg, S. J. (2022). Validating predicted site response in sedimentary basins from 3D ground motion simulations. Earthquake Spectra, 38(3), 2135–2161. https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930211073159.
Razafindrakoto, H. N. T., Bradley, B. A., and Graves, R. W. (2018). Broadband Ground‐Motion Simulation of the 2011 Mw 6.2 Christchurch, New Zealand, Earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(4), 2130–2147. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170388.
Rezaeian, S., and Der Kiureghian, A. (2010). Simulation of synthetic ground motions for specified earthquake and site characteristics. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics, 39(10), 1155–1180.
Shaw, J. H., Plesch, A., Tape, C., Suess, M. P., Jordan, T. H., Ely, G., Hauksson, E., Tromp, J., Tanimoto, T., and Graves, R. (2015). Unified structural representation of the southern California crust and upper mantle. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 415, 1–15.
Small, P., Gill, D., Maechling, P. J., Taborda, R., Callaghan, S., Jordan, T. H., Olsen, K. B., Ely, G. P., and Goulet, C. (2017). The SCEC unified community velocity model software framework. Seismological Research Letters, 88(6), 1539–1552.
Taborda, R., Azizzadeh-Roodpish, S., Khoshnevis, N., and Cheng, K. (2016). Evaluation of the southern California seismic velocity models through simulation of recorded events. Geophysical Journal International, 205(3), 1342–1364.
Wirth, E. A., Frankel, A. D., Marafi, N., Vidale, J. E., and Stephenson, W. J. (2018). Broadband synthetic seismograms for magnitude 9 earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust based on 3D simulations and stochastic synthetics, Part 2: Rupture parameters and variability. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(5A), 2370–2388.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Geo-Congress 2024
Pages: 420 - 429
History
Published online: Feb 22, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Analysis (by type)
- Earthquake engineering
- Earthquake magnitude scale
- Earthquakes
- Engineering fundamentals
- Geohazards
- Geomechanics
- Geotechnical engineering
- Geotechnical investigation
- Ground motion
- Infrastructure
- Light rail transit
- Models (by type)
- Numerical analysis
- Numerical models
- Rail transportation
- Simulation models
- Soil dynamics
- Soil mechanics
- Transportation engineering
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.