Integrating Benefit-Cost Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation to Prioritize Flood Mitigation Projects and Model Flood-Related Uncertainties
Publication: Construction Research Congress 2024
ABSTRACT
Historic and recent flood events show how susceptible communities are to floods. In the future, it is anticipated that areas prone to flooding will see a substantial increase in population density, which increases the damages of flooding events. In addition, climate change and rising sea levels may increase the frequency and severity of large-scale floods. This reflects that flood mitigation projects need to be properly planned and implemented. Hence, this paper aims to identify cost-effective flood mitigation measures for possible implementation in Essex County, New Jersey. First, the benefits were quantified for three potential flood mitigation measures/projects: elevation, wet floodproofing, and dry floodproofing under different scenarios. Second, the costs were estimated for the different alternative flood mitigating measures. Third, benefit-cost analysis and Monte Carlo simulation were conducted to select the most cost-effective measure(s). The results showed that while wet floodproofing and dry floodproofing might be more cost-effective than elevation, they do not provide the same protection level as elevation measures. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a framework that helps communities make informed decisions about their flood-related risks and money and prioritize projects to decrease flood losses by increasing the level of protection against flood hazards.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this chapter.
REFERENCES
Aerts, J. C. (2018). A review of cost estimates for flood adaptation. Water, 10(11), 1646.
Atoba, K., Newman, G., Brody, S., Highfield, W., Kim, Y., and Juan, A. (2021). Buy them out before they are built: Evaluating the proactive acquisition of vacant land in flood-prone areas. Environmental conservation, 48(2), 118–126.
de Ruig, L. T., Haer, T., de Moel, H., Botzen, W. W., and Aerts, J. C. (2020). A micro-scale cost-benefit analysis of building-level flood risk adaptation measures in Los Angeles. Water Resources and Economics, 32, 100147.
FEMA. FMSC (FEMA Flood Map Service Center). Access: https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home. Accessed: April 24, 2023.
FEMA. HAZUS (FEMA Flood Map Service Center: HAZUS). Access: https://msc.fema.gov/portal/resources/hazus. Accessed: April 24, 2023.
FEMA. Benefit-Cost Analysis Guidance for Discretionary Grant Programs, Access: https://www.transportation.gov/mission/office-secretary/office-policy/transportation-policy/benefit-cost-analysis-guidance. Accessed April 21, 2023.
FEMA. Homeowner’s Guide to Retrofitting - Six Ways to Protect Your Home from Flooding, 3rd, FEMA, 2014, p. 312. Access: https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-08/FEMA_P-312.pdf. Accessed April 21, 2023.
FEMA. Reducing Flood Risk to Residential Buildings That Cannot Be Elevated. Access: https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/202007/fema_P1037_reducing_flood_risk_residential_buildings_cannot_be_elevated_2015.pdf. Accessed April 21, 2023.
Gnan, E., Friedland, C., Mostafiz, R. B., Rahim, M. A., Gentimis, T., Rohli, R., and Taghinezhad, A. (2022). Economically optimizing elevation of new, single-family residences 1 for flood mitigation via life-cycle benefit-cost analysis. Authorea Preprints.
Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., and Mochizuki, J. (2019). Flood proofing low-income houses in India: an application of climate-sensitive probabilistic benefit-cost analysis. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 3, 23–38.
Jongman, B., Ward, P. J., and Aerts, J. C. (2012). Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes. Global Environmental Change, 22(4), 823–835.
Kind, J. M. (2014). Economically efficient flood protection standards for the N etherlands. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 7(2), 103–117.
Merz, B., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Baldi, M., Becker, A., Bichet, A., and Nied, M. (2014). Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14(7), 1921–1942.
NJBF (New Jersey Building Footprints). Access: https://services3.arcgis.com/OYP7N6mAJJCyH6hd/arcgis/rest/services/New_Jersey_Building_Footprints/FeatureServer. Accessed: April 24, 2023.
Pollack, A., Wing, I. S., Pinter, N., and Nolte, C. (2022). New Empirical Models for Flood Loss Prediction and Implications for the Coterminous United States.
Taghinezhad, A., Friedland, C. J., and Rohli, R. V. (2021). Benefit-cost analysis of flood-mitigated residential buildings in Louisiana. Housing and Society, 48(2), 185–202.
USDL (United States Department of Labor). (2023). Access: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ Accessed April 20, 2023.
Ward, P., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Botzen, W. J., Bates, P., Kwadijk, J., Hallegatte, S., and Winsemius, H. (2017). Future costs and benefits of river flood protection in urban areas: A global framework. Nat. Clim. Chang, 6, 381–385.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Construction Research Congress 2024
Pages: 247 - 256
History
Published online: Mar 18, 2024
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.