Phase III of Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations in the USACE: National Expansion Pathfinder

Since 2014, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has been engaged in a multi-agency research and development effort called Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO), which is exploring how advances in weather prediction and observations can inform operations and policy decisions at federal, state, and local water management agencies with the collaborative engagement and support of researchers, engineers, operators, and stakeholders. FIRO represents a new phase of water management for USACE wherein forecast information can now be used for planning future operations, a significant change from the decades-long policy of operating solely to “water on the ground.” Phase I of FIRO developed a process for assessing the FIRO viability, and Phase II explored transferability of viability assessments to additional pilot sites. The FIRO R&D effort has now entered Phase III, the National Expansion Pathfinder, and over the next five years, will consist of a national forecast skill assessment and improvement campaign, completing ongoing and performing new viability assessments on individual as well as systems of reservoirs, and applying the FIRO screening process to the USACE portfolio of dams to prioritize future FIRO viability assessment efforts. Lessons learned from FIRO Phases I and II will be presented along with plans for how Phase III will be carried out over the next five years.