Bayesian Network Framework to Model Seismic Failure Modes for an Embankment Dam System
Publication: ASCE Inspire 2023
ABSTRACT
Given the large number of aging dams in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), a risk framework is needed to characterize the seismic risk posed to a downstream community from a system of dams in the region. This study proposes a Bayesian network (BN) approach to system-level seismic risk assessment in the CEUS. A BN was previously developed to characterize the joint seismic hazard at multiple dams. This research extends that BN by characterizing the resulting potential seismic failure modes. The formulation of this scalable framework is discussed, and an illustrative example problem is used to illustrate how the BN can provide insights useful to risk-informed decision-making.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this chapter.
REFERENCES
ASCE. (2021). Dams. In (p. 8).
Bensi, M. T. (2011). A Bayesian Network Methodology for Infrastructure Seismic Risk Assessment and Decision Support. 316.
Boulanger, R. W., and Idriss, I. M. (2012). Probabilistic Standard Penetration Test–Based Liquefaction–Triggering Procedure. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 138(10), 1185–1195.
Bray, J. D., and Travasarou, T. (2007). Simplified Procedure for Estimating Earthquake-Induced Deviatoric Slope Displacements. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 133(4), 381–392.
Budnitz, R. J., Lambert, H. E., and Apostolakis, G. (1998). NUREG/CR-6544—A methodology for analyzing precursors to earthquake-initiated and fire-initiated accident sequences. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
Global Earthquake Model. (n.d.). OpenQuake Engine (3.14). Retrieved August 29, 2022, from https://github.com/gem/oq-engine.
Hancock, J., and Bommer, J. (2004). Predicting the Number of Cycles of Ground Motion. 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, British Columbia.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission. (2012). NUREG-2115—Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities.
Shannon, D. A. (2009). Dam Damage: Evaluating and Learning from the Wenchuan Earthquake’s Impact to China’s Dams. Proceedings from Technical Council on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering in a Multihazard Environment.
USACE. (2022, December 21). National Inventory of Dams.
US Committee on Large Dams. (1992). Observed Performance of Dams during Earthquakes: Vol. I.
US Society on Dams. (2014). Observed Performance of Dams during Earthquakes: Vol. III. US Society on Dams.
Yegian, M. K., Marciano, E. A., and Ghahraman, V. G. (1991). Earthquake‐Induced Permanent Deformations: Probabilistic Approach. Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 117(1).
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
ASCE Inspire 2023
Pages: 650 - 658
History
Published online: Nov 14, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Analysis (by type)
- Bayesian analysis
- Dam failures
- Dams
- Disaster risk management
- Disasters and hazards
- Earthquake engineering
- Embankment dams
- Engineering fundamentals
- Failure analysis
- Failure modes
- Failures (by type)
- Forensic engineering
- Geotechnical engineering
- Infrastructure
- Infrastructure resilience
- Man-made disasters
- Seismic effects
- Seismic tests
- Statistical analysis (by type)
- Structural engineering
- Tests (by type)
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.