Validation of Compounding and Cascading Hazards: Pathway toward Enhancing Disaster Resilience Models
Publication: ASCE Inspire 2023
ABSTRACT
Validation of community resilience models is a critical step for the development of these models. This paper provides a preliminary literature review of model validation in general and validation of resilience models in particular, discusses challenges associated with validation of community resilience models considering cascading and compounding hazards, and presents a case study focusing on validation of a fire following earthquake (FFE) model. The FFE model, previously developed by the lead author, was built by leveraging similarities between the underlying physics of failure of FFEs and normal condition ignitions. Validation of this FFE model enables realization of the research contributions of the model, including estimating fire risk for areas with limited data of historical FFE occurrences, identifying infrastructure and social factors that exacerbate fire risk following an earthquake, and enhancing realism in fire risk estimates through consideration of the effect of social factors on risk associated with FFE.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this chapter.
REFERENCES
Anderson, K., Hotchkiss, E., Myers, L., Stout, S., Grue, N., Gilroy, N., Aldred, J. R., and Rits, M. (2020). “After the hurricane: Validating a resilience assessment methodology.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 51, 101781.
Bakkensen, L., Fox‐Lent, C., Read, L., and Linkov, I. (2017). “Validating resilience and vulnerability indices in the context of natural disasters.” Risk analysis, 37(5), 982–1004.
Batouli, M., and Mostafavi, A. (2018). “Multiagent simulation for complex adaptive modeling of road infrastructure resilience to sea‐level rise.” Computer‐Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 33(5), 393–410.
Burton, C. G. (2015). “A validation of metrics for community resilience to natural hazards and disasters using the recovery from Hurricane Katrina as a case study.” Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 105(1), 67–86.
Cai, H., Lam, N. S., Qiang, Y., Zou, L., Correll, R. M., and Mihunov, V. (2018). “A synthesis of disaster resilience measurement methods and indices.” International journal of disaster risk reduction, 31, 844–855.
Coar, M., Garlock, M., and Elhami-Khorasani, N. (2020). “Effects of water network dependency on the electric network for post-earthquake fire suppression.” Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, 5(5), 269–288.
Cutter, S. L. (2018). “Compound, cascading, or complex disasters: what’s in a name?” Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 60(6), 16–25.
Cutter, S. L., and Finch, C. (2008). “Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards.” Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, 105(7), 2301–2306.
Elhami-Khorasani, N., Braxtan, N., Carlton, A., Coar, M., Dalton, J., Farshadmanesh, P., Kamath, P., Ketabdar, M., LaMalva, K., and Memari, M. (2022). Post-Earthquake Fire Assessment of Buildings: Evaluation Framework, American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), Reston, VA.
Elhami-Khorasani, N., Gernay, T., and Garlock, M. “Tools for measuring a city’s resilience in a fire following earthquake scenario.” Proc., IABSE Conference-Structural Engineering: Providing Solutions to Global Challenges.
Farshadmanesh, P., and Mohammadi, J. (2019). “A probabilistic methodology for assessing post-earthquake fire ignition vulnerability in residential buildings.” Fire technology, 55(4), 1295–1318.
Farshadmanesh, P., Mohammadi, J., and Modares, M. (2016). “Further development in predicting post-earthquake fire ignition hazard.” International Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 10(6), 681–685.
FEMA. (2009). HAZUS®MH MR4 Earthquake Model User Manual. Department of Homeland Security, Emergency Preparedness and Response Directorate, FEMA Mitigation Division, Washington, DC.
Gu, D., Dillard, M., Gerst, M., and Loerzel, J. (2023). “Validating Commonly Used Indicators for Community Resilience Measurement.” Natural Hazards Review, 24(2), 04023008.
Lewis, L. P., Petit, F., Bergerson, J. D., Hummel, J. R., Schlueter, S. O., Feffer, K. A., Wagner, A., Smith, B. J., and Macal, C. M. (2022). Understanding COVID-19 public health outcomes as a function of systemic risks and community resilience: A sociotechnical assessment framework to inform governance strategies on social vulnerability, workforce exposure, and resource accessibility. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.
Liu, M., and Huang, M. C. (2014). Compound disasters and compounding processes. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.
Lucko, G., and Rojas, E. M. (2010). “Research validation: Challenges and opportunities in the construction domain.” Journal of construction engineering and management, 136(1), 127–135.
Mohammadi, J., Alaysin, S., and Bak, D. “Analysis of post-earthquake fire hazard.” Proc., Proc. 10th World Conf. on Earthquake Engineering, 5983–5988.
Mohammadi, J., and DeSantiago, E. (2006). “Reliability analysis using information from experts.” Recent Developments in Reliability-Based Civil Engineering, Achintya Haldar, ed., World Scientific, Singapore.
NASEM. (2022). Resilience for Compounding and Cascading Events.
Oberkampf, W. L. (2019). “Simulation accuracy, uncertainty, and predictive capability: A physical sciences perspective.” Computer Simulation Validation: Fundamental Concepts, Methodological Frameworks, and Philosophical Perspectives, 69–97.
Peacock, W. G., Brody, S. D., Seitz, W. A., Merrell, W. J., Vedlitz, A., Zahran, S., Harriss, R. C., and Stickney, R. R. (2010). “Advancing resilience of coastal localities: Developing, implementing, and sustaining the use of coastal resilience indicators:.” Hazard reduction and recovery center, 1-148.
Reinoso, E., Jaimes, M. A., and Esteva, L. (2010). “Seismic vulnerability of an inventory of overturning objects.” Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 14(7), 1008–1021.
Sargent, R. G. Verification and validation of simulation models. IEEE.
Sarreshtehdari, A., and Elhami-Khorasani, N. (2021). “Integrating the fire department response within a fire following earthquake framework for application in urban areas.” Fire safety journal, 124, 103397.
Suwondo, R., Cunningham, L., Gillie, M., and Bailey, C. (2019). “Progressive collapse analysis of composite steel frames subject to fire following earthquake.” Fire safety journal, 103, 49–58.
Tillander, K. (2004). Utilisation of statistics to assess fire risks in buildings, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland.
UNISDR WMO. (2012). “UN System Task Team on the Post-2015 UN Development Agenda.” Disaster Risk and Resilience UNISDR, WMO.
Yabe, T., Rao, P. S. C., Ukkusuri, S. V., and Cutter, S. L. (2022). “Toward data-driven, dynamical complex systems approaches to disaster resilience.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(8), e2111997119.
Zhao, S. (2010). “GisFFE—an integrated software system for the dynamic simulation of fires following an earthquake based on GIS.” Fire Safety Journal, 45(2), 83–97.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
ASCE Inspire 2023
Pages: 378 - 387
History
Published online: Nov 14, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Business management
- Case studies
- Disaster risk management
- Disasters and hazards
- Earthquakes
- Engineering fundamentals
- Fires
- Geohazards
- Geotechnical engineering
- Hazardous substances
- Infrastructure
- Infrastructure resilience
- Man-made disasters
- Methodology (by type)
- Practice and Profession
- Research methods (by type)
- Social factors
- Validation
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.