Impacts of Energy Transformation on Coal Rail Transportation: Estimates and Projections for the Period 2005–2050
Publication: ASCE Inspire 2023
ABSTRACT
Coal is a critical commodity for US rail transportation and the larger economy. This study evaluates the impacts of the energy transition on railroads due to a decreasing share of coal in electricity generation. The impacts are measured by three metrics: annual revenue, node criticality, and network efficiency. Current impacts for the period 2005–2020 are assessed using the weighted network analysis method and Waybill data. Future impacts for the period 2020–2050 are predicted considering six scenarios, including the Energy Information Administration’s reference pathway, and five shared socioeconomic pathways adopted by the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results suggest that annual revenues from coal shipments could decrease by up to 79% or increase by more than twofold between 2005 and 2050, depending on the scenario. The impacts of the energy transition are uneven on the freight rail, with some stations, represented by network nodes, being particularly sensitive to changes in coal shipments. Moreover, network efficiency could decrease by 19% or increase by 70% between 2005 and 2050, depending on the scenario.
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Information
Published In
ASCE Inspire 2023
Pages: 28 - 35
History
Published online: Nov 14, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Business management
- Coal
- Data analysis
- Electric power
- Energy engineering
- Energy sources (by type)
- Engineering fundamentals
- Financial management
- Freight transportation
- Fuels
- Infrastructure
- Methodology (by type)
- Non-renewable energy
- Practice and Profession
- Rail transportation
- Railroad stations
- Research methods (by type)
- Revenues
- Terminal facilities
- Transportation engineering
- Transportation management
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