Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Surge Hazard under Future Sea-Level Rise Scenarios: A Case Study in the Chesapeake Bay Region, USA
Publication: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2023
ABSTRACT
Storm surge flooding caused by tropical cyclones is a devastating threat to coastal regions, and this threat is growing due to sea-level rise (SLR). Therefore, accurate and rapid projection of the storm surge hazard is critical for coastal communities. This study focuses on developing a new framework that can rapidly predict storm surges under SLR scenarios for any random synthetic storm of interest and assign a probability to its likelihood. The framework leverages the joint probability method with response surfaces (JPM-RS) for probabilistic hazard characterization, a storm surge machine learning model, and an SLR model. The JPM probabilities are based on historical tropical cyclone track observations. The storm surge machine learning model was trained based on high-fidelity storm surge simulations provided by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). The SLR was considered by adding the product of the normalized nonlinearity, arising from surge-SLR interaction, and the sea-level change from 1992 to the target year, where nonlinearities are based on high-fidelity storm surge simulations and subsequent analysis by USACE. In this study, this framework was applied to the Chesapeake Bay region of the United States and used to estimate the SLR-adjusted probabilistic tropical cyclone flood hazard in two areas: one is an urban Virginia site, and the other is a rural Maryland site. This new framework has the potential to aid in reducing future coastal storm risks in coastal communities by providing robust and rapid hazard assessment that accounts for future sea-level rise.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2023
Pages: 1284 - 1297
History
Published online: May 18, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Bodies of water (by type)
- Case studies
- Climates
- Coastal engineering
- Coastal management
- Coastal processes
- Coasts, oceans, ports, and waterways engineering
- Disaster risk management
- Disasters and hazards
- Engineering fundamentals
- Environmental engineering
- Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones
- Mathematics
- Methodology (by type)
- Natural disasters
- Probability
- Research methods (by type)
- Sea level
- Seas and oceans
- Storm surges
- Tropical regions
- Water and water resources
- Water management
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