Performance of the GPM IMERG and CMORPH Gridded Precipitation and Rain on Grid Approaches to Reproduce the Pluvial Flood of 2022 in the Lower Indus Basin, Pakistan
Publication: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2023
ABSTRACT
Hydrological extreme events are exacerbated by global climate change. The root cause of climate change is mainly attributed to increased emissions of green house gases (GHGs) and increased fossil fuel use. Although Pakistan contributes nominal in GHGs emissions, it is one of the most vulnerable countries facing climate-related disasters. These disasters include heat waves, weather abnormalities, and hydrological extremes such as drought and flood events. Frequent and unprecedented rainfall caused fluvial 2010 and pluvial 2022 devastating floods in Pakistan. Anthropogenic activities in natural floodways have multifold the extremities of floods. This study compares two gridded precipitation data sets: Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique (CMorph) and Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) with high temporal (half-hourly) and spatial resolution (8–10 km) and the use of Direct Rainfall Modeling (DRM) or Rain on Grid (ROG) approach to reproduce pluvial flood 2022 in lower Indus basin in Sindh, Pakistan. Results indicate that gridded precipitation and DRM approach can be used for the modeling of pluvial floods (urban and flash floods) for probabilistic flood mapping. Both the precipitation data sets were able to reproduce the pluvial flood 2022 with reasonable accuracy. However, IMERG precipitation data was able to produce a more realistic flood extent as compared to CMorph when both were compared with Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) extracted flood extent. The estimated stream flow or gridded precipitation forecast can be directly used as rain on grid in HEC-RAS to produce flood hazard maps. The study also highlights the possibility of utilizing the Global Forecast System (GFS), Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) predictions for flood forecasting, and early warning systems that can be developed for a country like Pakistan. The study can be useful for government departments, National Disaster and Management Authority (NDMA), and other agencies involved in flood fighting and flood prevention to make an early and well-informed decision before the disaster strike, and thus can reduce the loss of life and property. The methodology can be useful in transforming flood management from reactive to proactive.
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Published In
World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2023
Pages: 336 - 352
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Published online: May 18, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Business management
- Climates
- Developing countries
- Disaster risk management
- Disasters and hazards
- Engineering fundamentals
- Environmental engineering
- Floods
- Forecasting
- Grid systems
- Mathematics
- Meteorology
- Natural disasters
- Practice and Profession
- Precipitation
- Rainfall
- Statistics
- Systems engineering
- Systems management
- Water and water resources
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