Development and Verification of Non-Ergodic Ground-Motion Methodologies and Modeling Tools
Publication: Geo-Congress 2023
ABSTRACT
Non-ergodic ground-motion models (NGMMs) have the potential of reducing the ground-motion aleatory variability significantly, which has a large impact on the seismic hazard, especially at large return periods important for critical infrastructure. This reduction in aleatory variability is accompanied by epistemic uncertainty in regions with sparse recordings or a systematic shift in the median ground motion in regions with dense recordings. Gaussian process regression (GPR)—with spatially varying coefficients for modeling the source and site systematic effects and cell-specific anelastic attenuation for modeling the systematic path effects—is a flexible and robust modeling technique used in this study for developing NGMMs. As part of this work, open-source computer tools and instructions have been developed to show the steps toward developing NGMMs in the GPR framework. Statistical software packages STAN and INLA are used and compared. The developed software packages were tested against synthetic data sets with known non-ergodic effects, and different implementations of the developed software were evaluated for scalability, universality, precision, and model complexity.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Geo-Congress 2023
Pages: 373 - 383
History
Published online: Mar 23, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Business management
- Computer programming
- Computer software
- Computing in civil engineering
- Decision making
- Decision support systems
- Earthquake engineering
- Engineering fundamentals
- Gaussian process
- Geomechanics
- Geotechnical engineering
- Geotechnical investigation
- Ground motion
- Mathematics
- Methodology (by type)
- Practice and Profession
- Probability
- Research methods (by type)
- Seismic effects
- Seismic tests
- Soil dynamics
- Soil mechanics
- Stochastic processes
- Tests (by type)
- Verification
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