Survival Functions of the Shelter-in-Place Households for Disruptions in Infrastructure Services
Publication: Lifelines 2022
ABSTRACT
This paper provides a necessary analysis of community tolerance for prolonged disruptions of infrastructure services due to natural hazards. Currently, little is known about how households are affected by prolonged service disruptions. In this paper, we develop survival models for disruptions in power systems using empirical data collected in the aftermath of three major hurricanes, namely Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Florence, and Hurricane Michael. Survival analysis was conducted to determine the household’s tolerance for disruptions of infrastructure services. Consequently, survival curves were developed, showing the proportion of households experiencing hardship when the disruptions exceed certain levels. The presented survival models could be adapted in various locations for different services to assist utility companies and involved stakeholders for developing metrics to consider the societal expectation of the infrastructure services. The introduced measures facilitate decision-making by considering service needs of the community, setting priority for restorations, and better communicating risks to service users.
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Lifelines 2022
Pages: 423 - 433
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Published online: Nov 16, 2022
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