Selection of Multihazard-Based Damage Scenarios for the Los Angeles Water Transmission Network
Publication: Lifelines 2022
ABSTRACT
Earthquake damage scenarios are required to support design and analysis of spatially distributed infrastructure systems. In this paper, we develop a computationally efficient set of damage scenarios for the Los Angeles water transmission system that considers ground motion and liquefaction. Each damage scenario describes one possible realization of damage to the pipe network and includes the corresponding multihazard scenario and an associated adjusted annual occurrence probability. Each damage scenario, which specifies the damage state of each pipe in the network, is defined to be physically realistic and consistent with the associated multihazard scenario. Together, when probabilistically combined, the set of damage scenarios with their occurrence probabilities matches the probabilistic hazard and component damage distributions. The scenarios are selected to be small in number so that subsequent analysis is efficient. We combine ideas from recently developed methods to generate sets of multihazard scenarios as well as damage scenarios for analysis of spatially distributed infrastructure systems. The method applied in this paper involves simulating multiple hazards and a number of respective damage scenarios, and using optimization to select a subset of damage scenarios and assign adjusted occurrence probabilities.
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Lifelines 2022
Pages: 299 - 309
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Published online: Nov 16, 2022
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