Probabilistic Seismic Risk Evaluation of the City of Los Angeles Water System Pipeline Network
Publication: Lifelines 2022
ABSTRACT
To develop seismically resilient water systems, it is essential that the damage potential of a pipeline system be quantified for future earthquakes. In this study, a large stochastic catalog of earthquake simulations that adapt the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) model was used to represent the regional seismicity of the Los Angeles Basin. Random event footprints for earthquake simulations were constructed by utilizing the NGA West 2 ground motion models. This set of earthquake simulations was utilized to evaluate system-level consequences for the City of Los Angeles water pipeline network, measured by the total number of pipeline repairs and subsequent repair costs and times due to strong ground shaking and ground deformations. These estimates of damage and impact were based on empirical pipeline fragility models and restoration data from two past events that affected the water system in the past (1971 San Fernando and 1994 Northridge earthquakes). System-level performance was then evaluated at various targeted probability levels and influential seismic sources were identified. This study was performed as part of a long-term program administered by the City of Los Angeles Department of Water and Power to quantify and ultimately enhance the seismic resilience of all city trunklines and distribution pipelines.
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Lifelines 2022
Pages: 819 - 832
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Published online: Nov 16, 2022
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