Using Global Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis to Prioritize Bridge Retrofits for Low-Probability, High-Cost Earthquakes
Publication: Lifelines 2022
ABSTRACT
We propose a global sensitivity-analysis-based method for prioritising bridge seismic retrofits in a regional road network with respect to the pth percentile of the road network performance cost (Pp) over a set of disruptive earthquake scenarios. This modifies a previous method that considered the expected cost of the road network performance. The pth percentile of the road network performance cost captures the costly consequences of low-probability earthquakes. We estimate bridges’ total-order sensitivity (Sobol’) indices with respect to Pp using the hybrid-point Monte Carlo approximation method. We show that retrofitting bridges in decreasing order of their total-order Sobol’ indices reduces P99.9 more efficiently than other heuristic strategies on a network of B = 71 unique bridges in San Francisco. This method leverages existing risk assessment tools and remains computationally tractable while accounting for the probabilistic nature of the seismic hazard, the uniqueness of individual bridges, and network effects.
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Lifelines 2022
Pages: 797 - 808
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Published online: Nov 16, 2022
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