A Seismic Fragility Framework for Earth Dams
Publication: Lifelines 2022
ABSTRACT
Seismic fragility models predict the probability of different damage states for a given earthquake intensity measure. This paper outlines a seismic fragility framework for earth dams, which uses the relative crest settlement as the engineering demand parameter and involves two statistical models: (1) an engineering demand model that predicts the relative settlement as a function of ground motion intensity, and (2) a seismic capacity model that predicts the probability of a damage state given the relative settlement. These two models are used together within a Monte Carlo simulation to compute the resulting fragility model. This paper focuses on developing seismic capacity relationships that are based on the original damage description for each dam without consideration of the observed relative settlement. The development of a seismic fragility model is demonstrated through an example that uses the proposed seismic capacity relationships and a simplified engineering demand model.
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Lifelines 2022
Pages: 405 - 415
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Published online: Nov 16, 2022
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