Van Norman Complex Retrospective Risk Evaluation: Assessing the San Fernando Dam Performance during the San Fernando Earthquake
Publication: Lifelines 2022
ABSTRACT
As a result of the Mw6.6 1971 San Fernando earthquake the Lower San Fernando Dam (LSFD) suffered significant damage that could have resulted in a breach and uncontrolled release of the reservoir (URR). The LSFD embankment was damaged as a result of liquefaction that led to a massive slide of the upstream slope into the reservoir. The slide lowered the crest of the dam well below the reservoir level. However, a section of the downstream slope of the embankment remained, with about 5 ft of freeboard. Fortunately, the reservoir was lowered soon after the earthquake, avoiding URR into the heavily populated San Fernando Valley below. Experience suggests that system failures are a result of a combination of events or circumstances (a sequence of events) that collectively conspire to produce the outcome that was observed. This paper describes a probabilistic model of the events at the LSFD as a result of the 1971 earthquake to assess just how rare (in terms of its annual frequency) of occurrence it was. This retrospective evaluation of the events associated with the LSFD as a result of the 1971 earthquake provides insights and lessons for conducting prospective seismic risk studies in the future.
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Lifelines 2022
Pages: 13 - 24
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Published online: Nov 16, 2022
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