A Probabilistic Framework for Climate Change in Design
Publication: Ports 2022
ABSTRACT
Probabilistic analysis techniques are well suited for the task of evaluating the effects of climate change and particularly for its effects on flood hazards, such as storm surge and precipitation. Probabilistic methods provide a context for quantifying and evaluating uncertainty in flood risk, as well as considering the way flood risk will evolve with time. This paper presents an overview of several relevant ideas for probabilistic analysis of sea level rise and applies them to a case study at Dundalk Marine Terminal in Baltimore, Maryland. The analysis presented represents part of the input to a benefit-cost analysis that was used to establish the optimum elevation for a storm surge barrier (sea curb) around the perimeter of the terminal. The case study illustrates the type of results that can be obtained through this type of analysis and the perspective that they can provide to a project.
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Ports 2022
Pages: 11 - 22
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Published online: Sep 15, 2022
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