Assessing Design Thresholds in the Oil Infrastructure in Light of Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events
Publication: Geo-Extreme 2021
ABSTRACT
The oil industry has already been exposed to extreme weather events putting its processes, growth, and security at risk. As the majority of its processes and structures have been designed to withstand experienced and known climate change risks, adaptation policies necessitate the development of regional climate-resilient infrastructures by ensuring that assets are located, designed, built, and operated considering the future climate. These, in turn, require the establishment of threshold levels of risks and resilience to the impacts of climate change, over the entire life span of these assets. The work presented in this paper is based on an extensive consideration of how climate change is anticipated to impact the midstream and downstream oil industry in Greece. The analysis carried out indicated shorter return periods for the specific design thresholds of average/maximum temperatures and of the Heat-index indicator as associated with an increase in the number of events above thresholds for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 future scenarios. Based on microscale climate characteristics, this study highlights the need for the redesign or enhancement of oil infrastructure based on future projections and risk-informed decisions throughout the facility’s lifetime, including long-term planning and preparedness under deep uncertainties.
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Geo-Extreme 2021
Pages: 200 - 210
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© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Nov 4, 2021
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