Regional Conference on Permafrost 2021 and the 19th International Conference on Cold Regions Engineering
Thermal Modelling of Post-Fire Permafrost Change under a Warming Coastal Subarctic Climate, Eastern Canada
Publication: Permafrost 2021: Merging Permafrost Science and Cold Regions Engineering
ABSTRACT
Forest fires are known to have lasting thermal impacts on permafrost, but there are no previous studies of such effects along the eastern Canadian coastline. One-dimensional thermal modelling was used to examine the ground thermal regime at a coastal forest fire site in the discontinuous permafrost zone near Nain (56.5°N), Nunatsiavut, eastern Canada. Simulations were undertaken for both the unburned forest and adjacent fire-disturbed area, which were modelled to have an initial permafrost thickness of 15.6 m in 1965. Future scenarios incorporated changes to regional air temperature following Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, as well as variations in surface organic material regeneration. Results varied from permafrost thinning but persisting beyond 2099 under RCP4.5 (unburned) to thawing entirely by 2060 under RCP8.5 (high severity burn, no organic material regeneration). In all burned scenarios, a supra-permafrost talik developed immediately following disturbance, but in most cases, frozen ground re-aggraded after several decades. Our findings are broadly consistent with those from western North America and demonstrate that the main impact of fire is to accelerate permafrost thaw due to climate warming.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research was undertaken on the traditional territory of the Labrador Inuit with permission from the Nunatsiavut Government (Permit #9222380). Funding for this research was provided by Polar Knowledge Canada (PI: Dr. Carissa Brown) and the Northern Scientific Training Program, and Y. Wang acknowledges financial support from the W. Garfield Weston Foundation and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. We thank the Nunatsiavut Research Centre and the Labrador Institute for logistical and in-kind support, and we gratefully acknowledge Frédéric Dwyer-Samuel, Dr. Luise Hermanutz, Dr. Alain Cuerrier, Dr. Lucas Brehaut, Caitlin Lapalme, Harold Goudie, Shirley Goudie, Jim Goudie, Gillian Gear, Ches Webb, Joe Webb, William Ikkusek, Edward Sillett, Carla Pamak, Liz Pijogge, Dr. Paul McCarney, and Rodd Laing for their collaboration and support of this project. We are grateful to Dr. Sai Vanapalli and Dr. Konrad Gajewski for their generous provision of modelling resources. We thank Dr. Denis Lacelle, Dr. Konrad Gajewski, and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.
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Permafrost 2021: Merging Permafrost Science and Cold Regions Engineering
Pages: 82 - 93
Editor: Jon Zufelt, Ph.D., HDR Alaska
ISBN (Online): 978-0-7844-8358-9
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© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Oct 21, 2021
Published in print: Oct 21, 2021
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