A Reliability Model for Road Construction Contract Duration
Publication: International Conference on Transportation and Development 2021
ABSTRACT
High degrees of uncertainties in governing parameters lead to an unavoidable risk in deciding upon duration of construction contracts. Both deterministic and probabilistic models are used by agencies to decide upon contract duration during the planning stage. In this paper, a generalized reliability model based on static resistance-loading interference is developed for the assessment of reliability of any pre-decided contract duration, for a project of a particular estimated cost, and specific length. In the model, the ‘cost per km per year’ and ‘a combination of cost per km and cost per year’ are deemed as the system resistance and external loading, respectively. By examining sets of data, a two-parameter bi-variate log-normal distribution is found to represent the joint probability density function of the resistance and the loading. Monte Carlo simulation is then used to establish the reasonableness of the proposed model, and statistical results are finally used to recommend a reliability factor (range) for the proposed model.
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Published In
International Conference on Transportation and Development 2021
Pages: 83 - 90
Copyright
© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Jun 4, 2021
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