Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of the HSPF Model on a Pervious Landcover Dominated Watershed
Publication: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2021
ABSTRACT
Sensitivity analysis is an important assessment usually performed to gain a better understanding of the hydrological processes impacting model outcomes as well as to identify most dominant parameters for model optimization and calibration. In this study, a watershed model developed using the Hydrologic Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) for South Chickamauga Creek watershed was evaluated for parameter sensitivity. Critical HSPF model parameters, i.e., lower zone evapotranspiration (LZETP), index to infiltration capacity (INFILT), base groundwater recession (AGWRC), interflow inflow (INTFW), fraction of groundwater inflow to deep losses (DEEPFR), etc., were investigated for the sensitivity analysis. This paper presents the sensitivity analysis results using sensitivity factor, which is expressed as a ratio of the percentage change in model output (i.e., runoff, peak flow) to percentage change in model input parameter (expressed as percentage) and explains the variability of model outcomes from the selected perturbations of input parameters. Low flow conditions were mostly influenced by AGWRC, DEEPFR, LZETP, and INFILT, whereas INFILT and INTFW had most influence on the peak flows. Annual runoff volume and high flow conditions were highly sensitive to LZETP. However, AGWRC was found to be the most influential parameter in all hydrologic responses in this watershed. Overall, this study helps watershed management by providing insight into model structure and adjustment. Besides, it will work as a basis for future multisite sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this chapter.
REFERENCES
Bathi, Jejal Reddy, and Shuvashish Roy. 2020. 'Computer Tools for Urban Hydrology and Water Quality Management.' in Veera Gnaneswar Gude, Venkataramana Gadhamshetty and Ramanitharan Kandiah (eds.), Sustainable Water: Resources, Management and Challenges (Nova Science Publishers).
Bicknell, B. R., J. C. Imhoff, J. Kittle Jr., T. Jobes, and A. Donigian Jr. 2005. Hydrological Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF) user’s manual for release 12.2, USEPA, Athens, GA.
Delorit, Justin, Edmundo Cristian Gonzalez Ortuya, and Paul Block. 2017. 'Evaluation of model-based seasonal streamflow and water allocation forecasts for the Elqui Valley, Chile', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21: 4711.
Donigian, A. S. 2002. 'Watershed model calibration and validation: The HSPF experience', Proceedings of the Water Environment Federation, 2002: 44-73.
Donigian, A. S., Jr., and J. T. Love. 2007. “The Housatonic River watershed model: model application and sensitivity/uncertainty analysis.” In 7th international IWA symposium on system analysis and integrated assessment in water management. Citeseer.
Duda, P. B., P. R. Hummel, A. S. Donigian Jr., and J. C. Imhoff. 2012. 'BASINS/HSPF: Model use, calibration, and validation', Transactions of the ASABE, 55: 1523-47.
Hamby, D. M. 1995. 'A comparison of sensitivity analysis techniques', Health physics, 68: 195-204.
Hamon, W. Russell. 1963. 'Computation of direct runoff amounts from storm rainfall', International Association of Scientific Hydrology Publication, 63: 52-62.
Li, Zhaofu, Hongyu Liu, Chuan Luo, Yan Li, Hengpeng Li, Jianjun Pan, Xiaosan Jiang, Quansuo Zhou, and Zhengqin Xiong. 2015. 'Simulation of runoff and nutrient export from a typical small watershed in China using the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran', Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 22: 7954-66.
Lu, Jianbiao, Ge Sun, Steven G. McNulty, and Devendra M. Amatya. 2005. 'A Comparison of Six Potential Evapotranspiration Methods for Regional Use in the Southeastern United States 1', JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 41: 621-33.
Luo, Chuan, Zhaofu Li, Min Wu, Kaixia Jiang, Xiaomin Chen, and Hengpeng Li. 2017. 'Comprehensive study on parameter sensitivity for flow and nutrient modeling in the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran model', Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 24: 20982-94.
Mishra, A., P. B. Duda, M. H. Gray, B. R. Bicknell, A. S. Donigian Jr., and R. W. Zeckoski. 2015. HSPEXP+ Version 1.11 User’s Manual. In.: Mountain View, CA: AQUA TERRA Consultants.
Mishra, Anurag, Brian R. Bicknell, Paul Duda, Tony Donigian, and Mark H. Gray. 2017. 'HSPEXP+: An enhanced expert system for HSPF model calibration—A case study of the snake river watershed in Minnesota', Journal of Water Management Modeling.
Mishra, Ashok, S. Kar, and V. P. Singh. 2007. 'Determination of runoff and sediment yield from a small watershed in sub-humid subtropics using the HSPF model', Hydrological Processes: An International Journal, 21: 3035-45.
NOAA. 1982. ': Evaporation atlas for the contiguous 48 United States'.
Pusa, Maria. 2012. 'Perturbation-theory-based sensitivity and uncertainty analysis with CASMO-4', Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations, 2012.
Ranatunga, Thushara, Susanna T. Y. Tong, and Y. Jeffrey Yang. 2017a. 'An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrological modelling', Hydrological sciences journal Journal des sciences hydrologiques, 62: 76-92.
Ranatunga, Thushara, Susanna T. Y. Tong, and Y. Jeffrey Yang. 2017b. 'An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrological modelling', Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62: 76-92.
Roy, Shuvashish. 2020. Three-dimensional hydraulic model set-up: a case study of middle Tennessee River.
Roy, Shuvashish, Babatunde Atolagbe, Arash Ghasemi, and Jejal Bathi. 2020. 'A MATLAB-Based Grid Generation Tool for Hydrodynamic Modeling.' in, Watershed Management 2020 (American Society of Civil Engineers Reston, VA).
Sieber, Angela, and Stefan Uhlenbrook. 2005. 'Sensitivity analyses of a distributed catchment model to verify the model structure', Journal of Hydrology, 310: 216-35.
Singh, Vijay P. 1995. Computer models of watershed hydrology. Rev.
Tang, Yong, P. Reed, Thibaut Wagener, and K. Van Werkhoven. 2007. Comparing sensitivity analysis methods to advance lumped watershed model identification and evaluation.
Thornton, P. E., M. M. Thornton, B. W. Mayer, Y. Wei, R. S. Devarakonda, R. S. Vose, and R. B. Cook. 2017. Daymet: Daily Surface Weather Data on a 1-km Grid for North America, Version 3 ORNL DAAC Oak Ridge Tenn. In.: USA.
Turner, Sean W. D., James C. Bennett, David E. Robertson, and Stefano Galelli. 2017. 'Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21: 4841-59.
U.S. EPA. 2000. BASINS technical note 6: Estimating hydrology and hydraulic parameters for HSPF. In.: U.S. EPA Washington, DC.
U.S. EPA. 2015. Procedures and Methodologies for the Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses for Illinois River Watershed and Tenkiller Ferry Lake, Oklahoma In. U.S. EPA, Dallas, TX.
U.S. EPA. 2019. Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Non-point Sources: BASINS Version 4.5, Core User Manual. In.: U.S. EPA.
Zhou, Xiaobo, and Henry Lin. 2008. 'Local Sensitivity Analysis.' in Shashi Shekhar and Hui Xiong (eds.), Encyclopedia of GIS (Springer US: Boston, MA).
Zhou, Xiaobo, Henry Lin, and Henry Lin. 2008. ‘Global Sensitivity Analysis.’ in Shashi Shekhar and Hui Xiong (eds.), Encyclopedia of GIS (Springer US: Boston, MA).
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Jun 3, 2021
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.