Analysis of Factors Affecting Centripetal Commuter Flow in Metropolitan Areas: A Case Study of the Osaka Metropolitan Area and the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

As a rigid passenger flow, centripetal commuter flow is the most important passenger flow in metropolitan area. The research explores the influence factors of the proportion of commuters to central cities in metropolitan areas (PCC) by taking the Osaka and Tokyo metropolitan areas as study objects. Firstly, the scope of metropolitan area is defined according to each city’s proportion of local commuters to the central city. Then, among many potential influencing factors, comprehensive travel time (CTT) and balance between the number of posts and local commuters (BPC) are identified, which mainly influence PCC, both showing negative relationship with PCC. Based on the analysis, a model was built to quantify this influence mechanism by least squares regression. Finally, abnormal points are analyzed and explained combined with results of the model. The conclusions drawn from the research may help provide some references for improving accuracy of demand forecasting in metropolitan areas.