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Aug 12, 2020
Prediction of Routine Maintenance Needs of Urban Expressways from Minor Repair Data Using Markov Chains
Authors: Li Li [email protected], Ming-Hao Wang [email protected], Xiao-Min Wan [email protected], and Hui Wang [email protected]Author Affiliations
Publication: CICTP 2020
ABSTRACT
With the growth of operating time, routine maintenance efforts and financial needs of urban expressways are constantly rising. In order to more effectively develop routine maintenance plans and prepare appropriate funding budgets, it is necessary to make reasonable predictions about future routine maintenance needs. This study collected minor repair data of urban expressway in Shanghai for more than a decade, including maintenance records of the main structures of expressways and the maintenance and replacement records for various ancillary facilities. After careful data preprocessing, Markov chains were used to forecast the routine maintenance needs of urban expressways. Routine maintenance needs were expressed in terms of the number of different types of maintenance work. It was concluded that the Markov chain developed for predicting routine maintenance needs of urban expressways in this study was mathematically acceptable and predicts routine maintenance needs with reasonable accuracy.
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© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Aug 12, 2020
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1Dept. of Civil Engineering, Shanghai Univ., Shanghai 200444, China. Email: [email protected]
2Dept. of Civil Engineering, Shanghai Univ., Shanghai 200444, China. Email: [email protected]
3Shanghai Chengji Municipal Construction and Development Co. Ltd., Shanghai 200433, China. Email: [email protected]
4Key Laboratory of New Technology for Construction of Cities in Mountain Area (Chongqing Univ.), Ministry of Education, Chongqing 400045, China; School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing Univ., Chongqing 400045, China. Email: [email protected]
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Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.