Construction Research Congress 2020
Benefits of Using Confidence Intervals in Reports of Project Cost Overrun
Publication: Construction Research Congress 2020: Project Management and Controls, Materials, and Contracts
ABSTRACT
Cost overrun is a worldwide phenomenon, with inherent variability and uncertainty that influence project performance. These variability and uncertainty deserve a thorough understanding to mitigate critical overruns. Currently, several publications summarize the cost overruns of a set of projects through point estimates and not through interval estimations. This current practice of reporting statistical summaries provides incomplete information that may constrain a proper understanding of cost overruns. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the features of current reporting practices of projects’ cost overruns and to discuss the benefits of using confidence intervals in such summaries. Specifically, based on a systematic review of publications, the study aimed at analyzing thirty-six papers with relevant information of project cost overruns from five world regions; comparing the summaries by reporting pattern identified; and computing the confidence intervals of aggregated cost overruns by project type. This research found that few studies on cost overrun reported range estimations, measures of variability, and data distribution information. Additionally, there were few studies with a detailed description of the research methodology. This study advocate for reports with accurate details on distribution and range estimation of cost overruns to a better understanding of this phenomenon in construction projects.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Construction Research Congress 2020: Project Management and Controls, Materials, and Contracts
Pages: 711 - 720
Editors: David Grau, Ph.D., Arizona State University, Pingbo Tang, Ph.D., Arizona State University, and Mounir El Asmar, Ph.D., Arizona State University
ISBN (Online): 978-0-7844-8288-9
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© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Nov 9, 2020
Published in print: Nov 9, 2020
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