A Forensic Evaluation of Projects in Afghanistan Using the Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI)

This paper describes a research investigation that retroactively examined front end planning (FEP) by studying fifteen completed military facilities, building projects constructed for the Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) in Afghanistan by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE); these projects represented expenditures of approximately $180 M and were contracted between 2009 to 2015. The investigation collected and analyzed performance information for the projects using a survey questionnaire, follow-up interviews, and a thorough review of the contract documents that established project scope. The study showed that no project was completed on schedule, with changes ranging from +11 percent to +176 percent, averaging 67 percent delay versus original schedule. Cost performance for the projects ranged between 0 to +37 percent with an average cost increase of 12 percent. Results showed that 67 percent of projects reported scope changes, 47 percent encountered differing site conditions, and 40 percent of projects had security issues among others. A forensic PDRI (project definition rating index) evaluation was also performed on the worst performing projects to investigate if the identified problems could have been addressed in front end planning (FEP) for similar types of projects in similar scenarios. In retrospect, many of these problems, such as lack of geotechnical and site investigations, security issues, long lead procurement, labor issues, and so forth could have been addressed through mitigation action during FEP as mapped using the PDRI. At a minimum, contingency could have been set aside to handle unknowns.