15th Triennial International Conference
Predicting Long-Term Coastal Conditions in San Francisco Bay and Other Estuaries with the Use of Supervised Neural Networks
Publication: Ports 2019: Port Planning and Development
ABSTRACT
Neural networks were applied to predict long-term tidal currents in the San Francisco Bay in lieu of typical hydrodynamic simulations. Conventional numerical modeling can require significant computational power and calculation times; however, trained neural networks can provide near-instantaneous calculation of coastal conditions to supplement or replace traditional hydrodynamic modeling efforts. For this study, supervised networks were developed to forecast and hind-cast tidal currents in San Francisco Bay. Two different artificial neural networks were created to predict bay-wide tides and tidal currents throughout all of San Francisco Bay: a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network, and a presumably more accurate long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN). Both neural networks were able to accurately forecast and hindcast long-term tides and tidal currents at any given time throughout all of San Francisco Bay. Using a trained neural network, long-term hydrodynamic model results can be obtained within seconds. Potential applications of the trained San Francisco Bay neural network include derivation of boundary conditions to drive smaller and more efficient nested hydrodynamic models, real-time prediction of hydrodynamics for navigation safety evaluations, and sediment or tracer transport for flushing studies.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this chapter.
REFERENCES
Deo, MC, Sridhar Naidu, C. 1999. Real time wave forecasting using neural network. Ocean Engineering 26: 191–203.
Deltares 2018. D-Flow Flexible Mesh. Delft 3D Flexible Mesh SuiteUser Manual. Version 1.5.0, rev. 59909. Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands.
Chollet, Francois., et al. 2015. Keras. GitHub. https://github.com/fchollet/keras.
Hochreiter, Sepp & Schmidhuber, Jurgen. 1997. Long Short-term Memory. Neural Computation. 9. 1735-80.
Kolomiets, P., Sorockin, M., Kivva, S. and M. Zheleznyak. 2008. MORPHO-UNS-PAR Unstructured Hydrodynamic Model.
Le Provost, C., Genco, M. L., Lyard, F., Vincent, P., and Canceil, P. 1994. Spectroscopy of the World Ocean Tides from a Finite Element Hydrological Model. J. Geophysical research, 99, 24777-24798.
Mandal, S., et al. 2008. Application of Neural Networks in Coastal Engineering – an Overview. International Association for Computer Methods and Advances in Geomechanics, 12th Conference.
Safari Mir-Jafar-Sadegh, et al. 2016. Artificial neural network and regression models for flow velocity at sediment deposition. Journal of Hydrology. Volume 541 Part B. 1420-1429.
Saha, Dauji & Deo, M.C. & Bhargava, Kapilesh. 2014. Prediction of ocean currents with artificial neural networks. ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering. 21. 14-27.
Von Blohn, K., Davey, J., Tirindelli, M., Fenical, S. Cruise Ship Maneuvering and Berthing at Pier 27 Cruise Terminal, San Francisco, CA.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Ports 2019: Port Planning and Development
Pages: 101 - 111
Editors: Pooja Jain, Moffatt & Nichol and William S. Stahlman III, America's Central Port
ISBN (Online): 978-0-7844-8262-9
Copyright
© 2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Sep 12, 2019
Published in print: Sep 12, 2019
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.