Research on Accident Propagation Path of Urban Rail Transit Based on Safety Entropy SIR Model

There are many complex interactions among components of Metro rail stations. How to find out the key point of metro operations and predict the path of accidents spreading in the system is an important research content in safety science. This paper proposes an improved SIR model based on safety entropy, and reveals the complex internal laws of accident propagation. By extracting the components of urban rail transit system as nodes and taking the physical connection between components as the edge, a metro safety network model is constructed. On this basis, the system propagation path and immune strategy are formed. The results show that the improved SIR model is more precise than SIR model to show the change of the network for a short time. Accurate results predict more detailed propagation path, which provide useful guidance for improving system security, and eliminating hidden dangers of the complex system.