Chapter
Jul 2, 2019
A Comparison Study of Short-Term Passenger Flow Forecast Model of Rail Transit
Authors: Jiayou Lei [email protected], Min He [email protected], and Chunyan Shuai [email protected]Author Affiliations
Publication: CICTP 2019
Abstract
Short-term passenger flow forecasting is an important data support for urban rail transit operation planning; it improves passenger flow organization, gives early-warning for oversaturation, and improves transportation service and safety. Many forecast models have been proposed to forecast passenger flow dynamics. Different models are based on different theoretical backgrounds with different characteristics; moreover, the dynamic of rail transit passenger flow is different in different stations due to land use and location. Six models, namely MA, ARIMA, SARIMA, BPNN, WNN, and SVM models are used to make short-term predictions of passenger flow within five working days in six Beijing stations. After comparative analysis, prediction accuracies of nonlinear models are relatively higher under a similar model input structure. In addition, this work confirms the existence of strong periodicity and stability of passenger entry flow and suggests that these characteristics should be considered to improve prediction accuracy when constructing models in further research.
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© 2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Jul 2, 2019
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Faculty of Transportation Engineering, Kunming Univ. of Science and Technology, 727 South Jingming Rd., Chenggong District, Kunming 650500, China. E-mail: [email protected]
Faculty of Transportation Engineering, Kunming Univ. of Science and Technology, 727 South Jingming Rd., Chenggong District, Kunming 650500, China. E-mail: [email protected]
Faculty of Transportation Engineering, Kunming Univ. of Science and Technology, 727 South Jingming Rd., Chenggong District, Kunming 650500, China. E-mail: [email protected]
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