Modeling Urban Land Use Dynamics through Markov Model Using Geospatial Tools for Kota, India

Urban land use dynamics is an important component for land use management and regional planning of the area. In this paper an attempt is made to analyze the processes of spatial and temporal change pattern in Kota City of Rajasthan, which is undergoing a fast but unplanned development. Satellite-derived urban land use maps of 1999, 2011, and 2016 and Markov model coupled with geospatial technology have been adopted to predict the spatial distribution of land use change in future. Transition among different land use types is analyzed to understand the spatial as well as temporal variability during a period of 1999-2016. Markov model performance was evaluated between the empirical urban land use map extracted from Landsat 8 (multispectral merged panchromatic) image and the simulated land use map obtained from the Markov model. Later spatial pattern changing characteristics were investigated by predicting the land use/cover changes up to 2030. Result implies the rising trend in built-up areas especially in periphery of the city with decreasing trend in agriculture land. This study suggests that this spatio-temporal model provides not only a quantitative description of changes in the past but also the estimated direction and magnitude of likely changes in the future. Hence, if the current trends exist without sustainable development measures, severe land degradation will occur that could indirectly affect the local environment of the city. Therefore, this study is helpful for local authorities to understand the complex land use system and develop guidelines as well as policies for sustainable urban expansion and ecological conservation.